Asia Property Weekly Summary
Core Content Overview
This document provides a comprehensive review of the Asia property market, covering key developments, performance metrics, and upcoming events across different regions. It includes insights on residential and commercial property trends, investment activity, and analyst ratings.
Key Market Insights
China
- Residential Market:
- Property and land sales increased by 6% week-over-week (wow) and 16% year-over-year (yoy), with tier-1 cities outperforming.
- Inventory decreased by 0.5% wow, and inventory months dropped to 11.3 (vs. 11.6 in November).
- Land sales volume rose by 6% wow, but land sales value declined by 18% wow.
- CMI (Commercial Market Index) and CAI (Construction Activity Index) increased by 0.7% and 2.6% wow, respectively.
- Real estate investment growth slowed to 1.3% yoy in November 2015 (vs. 2.0% in October 2015), despite a 7.4% yoy increase in property sold.
- Policy stimuli are anticipated, but their impact depends on the direction of the policies.
- Radiance Property won a parcel near the Xinzhuang Metro Station at Rmb43,790psm, a 143% increase over the starting price.
- Shui On Land sold its Corporate Avenue Ph. 3 to a joint venture (90% Lee Kum Kee, 10% Vanke) for HK$6.87bn.
Hong Kong
- Residential Market:
- Primary residential unit sales dropped to 107 units in the week ending Dec 13 (vs. 404 in the prior week, 62% below the 3-month average).
- Secondary market prices fell by 1.1% wow as of Dec 6, with a +3.7% year-to-date (ytd) price change.
- Mainland buyers accounted for 23.4% of primary residential unit transaction volume in 3Q15, and 26.3% of transaction values, both representing the highest levels in 5 quarters.
- Commercial Market:
- Office rental values in Hong Kong increased by +1% qoq in 14Q3, with a +0% qoq in 14Q4 and +1% qoq in 15Q1.
- Office vacancy rates were 4% in 14Q3, 4% in 14Q4, and 4% in 15Q1.
- The URA received 8 bids for its redevelopment project at Hai Tan St., Sham Shui Po.
Japan
- Residential Market:
- Tokyo central 5 wards saw a 4.19% vacancy rate in November, marking the 10th consecutive month of improvement.
- Rent per tsubo increased by +4.1% yoy or +0.14% month-over-month (mom).
- In Shibuya ward, the vacancy ratio was 2.4% (vs. 2.31% in October), and rent per month was ¥19,537 (+7.6% yoy).
- Mitsui Fudosan opened lalaport Tachikawa with a 94,000sqm land area and 154,000sqm GFA, expecting ¥33bn in annual sales.
- Mitsubishi Estate Residence sold out its flagship condo "The Park House Kyoto Kamogawa Gosho Higashi" in the first launch day, with the most expensive unit sold at ¥749mn.
India
- Residential Market:
- Real estate investments in 2015 reached US$8bn, marking a 7-year high, driven by PE and non-convertible debenture borrowings.
- Commercial Market:
- Ascendas REIT acquired One@Changi (a business park in Singapore) for S$420mn and launched an S$408mn equity fundraising.
Singapore
- Residential Market:
- Ascendas REIT acquired One@Changi for S$420mn.
- Commercial Market:
- CDL re-entered the Australian residential market with a A$275mn (S$282mn) investment in a Brisbane housing project.
- SingLand-UOL secured a 99-year private housing site at Clementi for S$302.1mn, or S$615.04 psf ppr.
Upcoming Events
| Date |
Market |
Events |
| 17-Dec |
Hong Kong |
Unemployment rate; composite interest rate |
| 17-Dec |
Japan |
Trade balance, exports, imports |
| 17-Dec (HKT) |
US |
FOMC rate decision |
| 18-Dec |
China |
China November Property Prices |
| 21-Dec |
Hong Kong |
CPI composite |
Key Stock Performances
Top 5 Performers of the Week
| Stock |
1-week (%) |
1-month (%) |
| Home Inn |
6 |
14 |
| Clausner Development |
$ |
4 |
| China Verka (A) |
$ |
40 |
| Sobha Developers |
3 |
(8) |
| CFLO |
2 |
4 |
Bottom 5 Performers of the Week
| Stock |
1-week (%) |
1-month (%) |
| China Lodging Group |
(4) |
(1) |
| Lipo Kuroawad |
(14) |
(2) |
| Sunuc |
(9) |
5 |
| Polv (Hong Kong) |
(8) |
7 |
| China Merchants Land |
(8) |
(9) |
Buy/Sell-Rated Stocks
Buy-Rated (Market Cap > US$2bn)
| Stock |
Upside Potential (%) |
| Agile |
95 |
| Shimao |
81 |
| Tokyo Tatemono |
77 |
| Country Garden |
67 |
| Daliani Wanmi Comm Prop |
62 |
Sell-Rated (Market Cap > US$2bn)
| Stock |
Downside Potential (%) |
| Gemdale Corp |
(33) |
| Burris Sperng |
(22) |
| Everande |
(21) |
| Champion REIT |
(9) |
Buy-Rated (Market Cap < US$2bn)
| Stock |
Upside Potential (%) |
| Prestige Estate |
75 |
| Ober Real Estate |
64 |
| Sofia Developers |
53 |
| MapleTree Commercial Trust |
28 |
| China Lodging Group |
14 |
Sell-Rated (Market Cap < US$2bn)
| Stock |
Downside Potential (%) |
| Goodri Properties |
(24) |
| Far East Hospitality Trust |
(9) |
| Mandam Oriental |
(7) |
| Jimma Investments |
(5) |
Analysts and Contact Information
Hong Kong Property
- Anthony Wu: +852-2978-0634, anthony.wu@gs.com
- Justin Kwok, CFA: +852-2978-0481
- Claire Cheng: +852-2978-0488
- Nelson Wang: +65-6654-5463
China Property
- Yi Wang, CFA: +86-21-2401-8930
- Vicky Li: +86-21-2401-8926
- Jill Guan: +86-21-2401-8921
- Scofield Chi: +65-6654-5188
India Property
- Puneet Jain: +91-22-6616-9046
- Aditya Gupta: +91-212-934-7434
Japan Property
- Sachiko Okada: +81-3-6437-9937
- Akira Watanabe: +81-3-6437-9819
Singapore Property
- Paul Lian: +65-6889-2464
- Jason Yeo: +65-6889-2485
- Ankur Vohra: +65-6654-5185
- Jing Ren Tan: +65-6654-5176
Disclaimer
Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. Analysts employed by non-US affiliates are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA in the U.S.
