20241031-华创证券-中国人寿-601628.SH-2024年三季报点评_业绩高增受益投资端_代理人连续两个季度规模回升_6页_551kb

中国人寿（601628）2024年三季报业绩点评
报告要点：

1. 业绩亮点
   2024年Q1-Q3，公司实现归母净利润10452.3亿元，同比增长1739%；新业务价值（NBV）同比大幅提升251%，主因新单增速转正（同比+4%）及新业务价值率优化。

2. 业务结构优化

   • 保费增长：前三季度保费总额6082.51亿元，同比增51%。新单增速由负转正，续期保费同比增长75%，发挥“压舱石”作用。
   • 代理人规模：个险渠道人力达641万人，环比增长12万人，连续两季度规模回升；人均产能提升177%，推动渠道效率提升。
   • 十年期以上期缴保费：同比增177%，产品结构改善显著。

3. 投资端表现
   投资资产规模达636万亿，同比增长123%。Q3权益市场回暖推动总投资收益率同比上升257个百分点至538%，净投资收益率下降55个百分点至326%。但在利率下行背景下，长期投资收益仍面临压力。

4. 盈利驱动与目标价
   受低基数及权益市场弹性驱动，净利润超预期增长。维持“推荐”评级，目标价5396元（当前价4238元），预计2024-2026年EPS分别为3.86元、3.17元、3.19元。

风险提示：

• 监管政策变动、新单增速不及预期、权益市场波动、长期利率下行风险。

Financial Highlights

1. Strong Financial Performance

   • Q1-Q3 2024: Net profit attributable to shareholders up 1,739% YoY to CNY 104.5 billion.
   • New Business Value (NBV) surged 251% YoY, driven by increased new premium growth (+4% YoY) and improved value ratio.

2. Business Structure Improvement

   • Premium Growth: Total premium reached CNY 608.2 billion (+51% YoY). New premiums turned positive (+4% YoY), while renewal premiums grew 75%.
   • Agent Expansion: Individual insurance agents reached 6.41 million (up 120,000 YoY). Quality improved with higher per-agent premium (+177% YoY).
   • Long-term Policies: Premiums for policies with premium terms over ten years increased 177% YoY, reflecting product structure optimization.

3. Investment Results

   • Investment assets totaled CNY 636 trillion, up 123% YoY.
   • Investment returns improved significantly in Q3 due to equity market rebound, driving overall yield from 32.6% to 53.8% YoY. However, long-term rates remain a risk.

4. Valuation & Recommendations

   • Maintain "Buy" recommendation with target price CNY 5,396 (current price CNY 4,238).
   • EPS projected: 3.86, 3.17, 3.19 for 2024-2026.

Risks:

• Regulatory changes, slower new premium growth, equity market volatility, declining long-term interest rates.