20231218-东海证券-FICC_资产配置周观察_美债利率延续下行_汇率触及7.10关口_16页_2mb

Report Date and Theme: This report, dated 2023年12月18日, focuses on USD Treasury yield declines, exchange rate movements (e.g., USD/RMB near 7.10), and asset allocation in a week-long analysis from 2023/12/11 to 2023/12/17. Authors are Li Pei and Xie Jianbin.

Key Investment Highlights:

• Overseas: Fed's 2024 rate cuts (expected in May and June, high probability) signal a shift toward鸽派 policy, contributing to US 10-year Treasury yield falling below 4%. Economic data shows cooling inflation, with weak manufacturing PMI in November, but uncertainties like inflation surprises or banking crises could pose risks.
• Domestic: China's economy faces slow recovery due to ongoing weakness in property sector and low industrial profits. MLF operations (excess supply) suggest ongoing monetary easing, supporting bond market strength; however, supply disruptions are easing, constraining rate hikes. 2024 may feature downward pressure on interest rates, with a potential range for 10-year Treasury yields between 24% and 29%.
  -_Global_Views: Commodities rose modestly (e.g., gold up with yield declines, crude oil slight gain); foreign market trends include widening yield curves and currency fluctuations, with risks including geopolitical tensions.

Risk Assessment: Market risks include unanticipated US inflation slowdown, spread of international banking crises (e.g., from duration mismatches in liabilities), or worsening global tensions that could disrupt commodity prices.

Main Recommendations: No specific recommendations are detailed, but analysis suggests cautious monitoring of economic data for investments; emerging themes point to gradual monetary easing addressing liquidity and demand constraints in domestic sectors.