2014年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Tunisia_First_and_Second_Reviews_Under_the_Stand_92页_1mb

报告摘要

Summary of TUNISIA: First and Second Reviews Under the Stand-By Arrangement, Request for Waivers of Applicability and Nonobservance of Performance Criteria

Core Content

This document outlines the first and second reviews under the IMF Stand-By Arrangement (SBA) for Tunisia, including the request for waivers of performance criteria and applicability. It covers the economic performance, program review, policy discussions, and risks associated with the program implementation during the period of political transition and economic challenges.

Main Views

Political Context: Tunisia has experienced a prolonged political crisis due to upheaval and security tensions, which has affected economic stability and delayed reform implementation. The adoption of the Constitution and holding of elections in 2014 are key assumptions for the economic outlook.
Economic Performance: The economy has shown a weaker-than-expected recovery, with real GDP growth of 2.7% in 2013. The fiscal deficit improved slightly in 2013, but the program's performance criteria were not fully met by the end of the year.
Program Implementation: The program has been partially successful in meeting performance criteria for the NIR (Non-Reserve Instrument) and NDA (Non-Demand Adjusted), but delays in external financing and high liquidity needs in the banking sector have impacted results.
Structural Reforms: Progress on structural reforms has been made, but implementation has been delayed due to political and technical challenges. Key reforms include energy sector adjustments, public enterprise restructuring, and improving the targeting of social programs.
Monetary Policy: The Central Bank of Tunisia (CBT) has maintained a prudent monetary policy, with a stable interest rate corridor and reduced reserve requirements, which helped support macroeconomic stability.
Fiscal Policy: The fiscal adjustment path has been delayed, with the authorities opting for a more gradual approach. The medium-term fiscal deficit target of 2.5% of GDP by 2018 remains the focus.
Outlook and Risks: The outlook for 2014 is cautiously optimistic, with a projected GDP growth of 4.5% by 2015. However, significant risks remain, including political delays, security tensions, and external economic shocks.

Key Information

Performance Criteria

End-June and End-September: Performance criteria for NIR and NDA were met, but are estimated to have been missed by end-December due to lower external financing and high liquidity needs in the banking sector.
Primary Balance: The end-December fiscal target for the central government primary balance was overachieved, but this is attributed to weak budget execution and deferred payments to 2014.
Social Spending: The indicative target for social spending was missed at all test dates due to implementation capacity constraints and expenditure cuts.

Structural Reforms

Energy Sector Reform: Energy subsidies have been reformed to reduce regressive spending.
Public Enterprise Reform: Audits of public enterprises are ongoing, with a one-month delay in completing the study on liquidity ratio changes.
Banking Sector Reform: The bank interlinking platform and market makers agreement are expected to be implemented by March 2014, delayed from the original October 2013 timeline.
Household Support: A targeted household support program is being developed, with delays due to beneficiary identification and distribution mechanisms.

Macroeconomic Outlook

GDP Growth: Expected to rise to 4% in 2014, with potential overshooting in 2015 if the political and security situation stabilizes.
Inflation: Headline inflation is expected to decline to 5.3% in 2014, with core inflation remaining around 4.5%. Non-administered food prices remain the main driver of inflation.
Current Account Deficit: Projected to narrow to 5.5% of GDP in 2015, driven by economic recovery in trading partners and lower commodity prices.
Reserves: Gross official reserves are expected to increase to 10.6 billion USD in 2015, with three months of imports coverage.

Risks

Political Delays: Further delays in the political transition could affect investment, job creation, and capital inflows.
Security Tensions: Continued instability could hinder tourism and foreign direct investment (FDI), and deepen the "wait-and-see" attitude among investors.
External Shocks: A weaker European economy or higher commodity prices could slow growth and worsen the fiscal and external positions.

Program Design and Modalities

The combined first and second reviews will make SDR 329.12 million (about USD 500 million) available.
The program continues to focus on short-term stabilization and sustained reforms to reduce economic vulnerabilities and promote inclusive growth.

Documents Included

Staff Report: Prepared for the Executive Board’s consideration.
Press Release: Includes a statement by the Chair of the Executive Board.
Statement by the Executive Director.
Letter of Intent (LOI).
Memorandum of Economic and Financial Policies (MEFP).
Technical Memorandum of Understanding (TMU).

Key Figures and Tables

Real GDP Growth: 2.4% year-on-year through September 2013, compared to 4% expected.
Headline Inflation: Peaked at 6.5% in March 2013, declined to 5.8% in November 2013, and rose to 6.0% in December 2013.
Current Account Deficit: 8.2% of GDP in 2013, projected to narrow to 5.5% by 2015.
Fiscal Deficit: Reduced from 5.2% of GDP in 2012 to 4.6% in 2013, but expected to worsen slightly in 2014.
IMF Financing: 150.1 million USD disbursed in 2013, with a 30% shortfall in external financing.
Foreign Currency Debt: Projected to increase to 73% of total debt in 2015.

Conclusion

The IMF review highlights the mixed performance of Tunisia's program, with some progress in fiscal and structural reforms, but significant challenges remain. The political transition and security situation continue to pose risks to economic recovery and investor confidence. The focus remains on short-term stabilization, fiscal consolidation, and structural reforms to ensure long-term economic sustainability and inclusive growth.