2011年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Dominican_Republic_First_Review_Under_the_Stand_72页_1mb

Dominican Republic: First Review Under the Stand-By Arrangement

Core Content

The Dominican Republic underwent its first review under the Stand-By Arrangement (SBA) in 2010, with the IMF Executive Board approving a 28-month SBA in November 2009 for SDR 1,094.5 million (500% of quota). The main objective of the program was to limit procyclicality and strengthen medium-term sustainability, creating conditions for a gradual recovery and sustained growth.

Key Developments

• Economic Growth: After a sharp contraction in 2009 due to the global financial crisis, the economy showed signs of recovery, with real GDP growth estimated at 3½% for 2009. The growth was mainly driven by net exports and an inventory cycle, but the recovery remained fragile.
• Inflation: Headline inflation ended 2009 at 5¾%, below the central bank target of 6-7%, while core inflation declined to 3¼%. Inflation rose slightly in January 2010 to 7% due to higher fuel prices.
• Fiscal Policy: The program aimed for a fiscal expansion in the second half of 2009, which was achieved with the combined public sector deficit reaching 4.4% of GDP. However, the central administration deficit exceeded the target by 0.4% of GDP, prompting a request for a waiver. The fiscal stance was countercyclical, with the public deficit increasing by 2% of GDP.
• Monetary Policy: The central bank kept the policy rate at a record low of 4% and maintained low reserve requirements. Despite a contraction in net domestic assets, private sector lending showed signs of recovery.
• External Sector: The current account deficit decreased to 5% of GDP in 2009, lower than projected, due to reduced imports and stronger tourism and remittance inflows. The capital account recorded a surplus due to international aid and FDI. Net international reserves exceeded the target by US$650 million.
• Earthquake Impact: The January 2010 earthquake in Haiti had limited impact on the Dominican Republic but created short-term fiscal pressure and increased external demand due to reconstruction efforts.
• Political Context: Parliamentary elections were scheduled for May 2010, which could pose risks to policy implementation. The new Constitution allows for re-election of the President in non-consecutive terms.

Main Challenges for 2010

• Maintain countercyclical policy as the economy recovers.
• Shift policy emphasis to sustainability in the second half of the year.
• Rationalize tax exemptions to improve collections.
• Implement electricity reform to gradually eliminate indiscriminate subsidies.
• Participate in the international effort to reconstruct Haiti within the program framework.

Performance Criteria and Structural Benchmarks

Quantitative Performance Criteria for End-December 2009

• Consolidated public sector deficit: Achieved (4.4% vs. 4.5% target).
• Central administration deficit: Exceeded by 0.4% of GDP (3.5% vs. 3.1% target).
• Net international reserves (NIR): Exceeded target by US$650 million (67.0% vs. 49.4% target).
• External arrears: Met (0.0%).
• Arrears to electricity generators: Missed by $100 million (0.2% of GDP), but a waiver is requested and supported.

Structural Benchmarks for End-2009

• Electricity Reform: A strategy to eliminate indiscriminate subsidies and improve collections was fully met.
• Social Safety Net: The conditional cash transfer program (Solidaridad) expanded to cover 70,170 families.

Staff Appraisal

The staff supports the waiver requests and the completion of the first SBA review, given the proposed actions and satisfactory performance. The program remains on track, and minor modifications are proposed for the central administration deficit and international reserves targets for 2010.

Key Documents

• Staff Report: Completed on March 25, 2010, following discussions with Dominican officials from February 2–15, 2010.
• Staff Supplement: Released on April 6, 2010, updating recent developments.
• Informational Annex: Provided additional context and details.
• Press Release: Summarized the Executive Board's discussion and views on the staff report.

Additional Information

• Letter of Intent (LOI): Signed in October 2009 and made public.
• Technical Memorandum of Understanding (TMU): Included in the Staff Report.
• Policy of Publication: Allows for the deletion of market-sensitive information.
• IMF Contact: Available at 700 19th Street, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20431.

Key Figures and Tables

• Figure 1: Real Sector Developments (GDP growth and unemployment).
• Figure 2: Fiscal Developments (public deficit and expenditure changes).
• Figure 3: Monetary Developments (interest rates and FX reserves).
• Figure 4: Exchange Rate Developments (peso depreciation and NEER stability).
• Table 1: Quantitative Performance Criteria for End-December 2009.
• Table 2: Structural Benchmarks for End-2009.

Outlook and Risks

• Growth Outlook: Improved with the recovery of the international economy, but downside risks remain, including a softening of the global economy and potential contagion from emerging market credit events.
• Inflation Expectations: Expected to remain subdued as the economy remains below potential.
• External Position: May weaken due to delayed nickel exports and higher oil prices.
• Output Gap: Remains negative, estimated at -4½% by mid-2010.

Conclusion

The Dominican Republic's SBA program is on track, with satisfactory performance in most areas. The staff supports the waiver requests and the proposed modifications to the program's targets. The country is expected to benefit from a gradual recovery, supported by countercyclical fiscal and monetary policies, and the implementation of structural reforms in the electricity sector and public financial management.