2014年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Tunisia_Third_Review_Under_the_Stand_86页_1mb

Tunisia: Third Review Under the Stand-By Arrangement

Core Content

This document outlines the Third Review Under the Stand-By Arrangement (SBA) for Tunisia, which was approved by the IMF Executive Board on June 7, 2013, for a 24-month period equivalent to 400% of quota (SDR 1.15 billion or about $1.75 billion). As of April 2014, SDR 427.92 (about $659 million) had been disbursed.

The program is structured around three pillars:

• Achieving short-term macroeconomic stability
• Laying the foundation for stronger and more inclusive growth
• Protecting the most vulnerable populations

Main Points

1. Recent Developments

• Moderate growth in 2013 (2.6%) was affected by weak industrial output and subdued tourism.
• Unemployment remained high, especially among youth and graduates (32%).
• Inflation slowed, decreasing to 5.5% in February 2014 from 6% at the end of 2013.
• Current account deficit remained high at 8.4% of GDP in 2013, but was expected to narrow in 2014 and 2015 due to improved export performance and reduced import demand.

2. Program Implementation

• The program is broadly on track, with most performance criteria met or close to being met.
• Structural reforms have been delayed due to political instability and government transitions.
• Only four out of eight structural benchmarks were met by end-March 2014, with others expected to be addressed in the coming months.

3. Outlook and Risks

• Moderate growth is projected for 2014 (2.8%) and medium-term potential of 4.5%.
• Inflation is expected to decline to 5.3% by end-2014.
• External position is projected to improve, with the current account deficit narrowing to 7.2% of GDP in 2014 and 6.3% in 2015.
• Key risks include:
  • Social tensions and potential strikes
  • Political delays in implementing reforms
  • Regional security issues affecting tourism
  • European economic weakness impacting Tunisia’s main trade partner
  • Fiscal and external imbalances remaining high

Key Policies and Measures

Fiscal Policy

• The 2014 budget includes:
  • A wage freeze (0.4% of GDP)
  • Savings in energy subsidies (0.8% of GDP)
  • Reduction in tax exemptions and excise tax hikes
• Additional measures include:
  • Tariff increases for electricity and fuel
  • Tax control measures, such as enhanced oversight of Tunisie Telecom
  • Recovery of tax arrears
• The structural fiscal deficit is expected to decrease to 4.9% of GDP in 2014, from 5.3% in 2013.

Monetary Policy

• The monetary policy remains accommodative to maintain low inflation and support economic stability.
• The central bank (CBT) has implemented capital controls and exchange rate adjustments to manage liquidity and stabilize the currency.
• The policy rate was increased by 50 basis points in December 2013, but the effective money market rate remained at 4.75% due to the interest rate corridor.

Structural Reforms

• Banking sector reforms are a priority, including improved regulation, strategic orientation of public banks, and stronger supervision.
• Public investment is being scaled up to support growth and create jobs.
• Tax reform is being pursued to improve revenue collection and reduce subsidies.
• Social protection measures are being introduced to support vulnerable groups, such as the lifeline electricity tariff and new social programs.

Documents Included

• Staff Report (April 11, 2014)
• Press Release (April 25, 2014)
• Staff Statement (April 25, 2014)
• Statement by the Executive Director for Tunisia
• Letter of Intent, Memorandum of Economic and Financial Policies, and Technical Memorandum of Understanding

Financial Implications

• The completion of the third review will make SDR 145.08 million (about $225 million) available.
• Public debt remained at 45% of GDP in 2013, with foreign currency debt increasing to 64%.
• Official reserves stood at $5.5 billion by end-December 2014, supporting the country’s ability to meet external financing needs.

Conclusion

The program is on track, with the government demonstrating commitment to reform and stabilization. However, political and social challenges continue to pose risks to its success. The focus remains on containing fiscal and external deficits, reforming the banking sector, and enhancing public investment and social protection to ensure sustainable and inclusive growth.