2011年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Greece_Fifth_Review_Under_the_Stand_162页_2mb

Summary of Greece's Fifth Review Under the Stand-By Arrangement

Core Content

This document outlines the Fifth Review of Greece's Stand-By Arrangement (SBA) under the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which was approved in May 2010. The review, conducted on November 30, 2011, was followed by a rephasing of the program and a request for waivers of nonobservance of performance criteria. The discussions were held on December 5, 2011, and the Executive Board provided its assessment, while the Executive Director for Greece issued a statement. The report includes staff appraisals, recent developments, discussions, and various tables and figures to support the analysis.

Main Points

1. Program Status and Context

• The SBA was initially approved for SDR 26.4 billion (2,399.1% of quota) and had received SDR 15.6194 billion (€17.9 billion) in disbursements by the time of the fourth review.
• The sixth disbursement of SDR 1.9224 billion (about €2.2 billion) was pending.
• Euro area countries had committed €80 billion in support, with €47.1 billion already disbursed and an additional €5.8 billion expected.
• A three-party coalition government was formed in November 2011, led by a technocratic Prime Minister, Lucas Papademos, and expected to last until Q1 2012.

2. Recent Developments

• Private Sector Involvement (PSI) discussions were ongoing, with a 50% face value haircut of Greek debt being the key target.
• Market sentiment deteriorated significantly after the last review, with sovereign CDS spreads increasing dramatically.
• The Greek economy experienced a sharp downturn in 2011, with GDP contraction of -5.5% to -6% in 2011 and -2.75% to -3% in 2012.
• Unemployment reached 16.5% in July 2011, far exceeding seasonal expectations.
• Inflation dropped to 1.4% in August 2011, well below the Euro area average, but core inflation fell to 0% due to economic weakness.
• Competitiveness is improving through wage cuts, but productivity remains weak.
• The current account deficit remained high, at 10% of GDP in the trailing 12 months, despite some improvement due to non-oil import compression.

3. Banking Sector Pressures

• The banking system faced increased pressure due to PSI discussions and sovereign debt exposure.
• Deposit outflows reached €32 billion by November 2011, with €15 billion in Q4.
• Emergency liquidity assistance (ELA) from the Bank of Greece increased significantly, with €60 billion in government guarantees approved.
• Core Tier I capital of the banking system fell to 8.6%, and two major banks fell below the 8% regulatory minimum.
• Proton Bank was intervened in October 2011, with a bridge bank established to protect depositors and wipe out former shareholders' interests.

4. Fiscal Performance

• The primary general government balance fell short of targets by €280 million (0.1% of GDP) through end-September 2011.
• The state budget deficit remained slightly higher than in 2010, though still below the initial fiscal position.
• Revenue shortfalls reached €1.7 billion (0.75% of GDP), with VAT efficiency declining and social security contributions also showing significant shortfalls.
• Discretionary spending delays and excess hiring contributed to the fiscal shortfall.

5. Privatization and Structural Reforms

• Privatization plans advanced, but sales were slow.
• Proceeds through end-September 2011 were €390 million, far below the €1.7 billion target.
• The Privatization Fund was fully operational by the end of 2011, with assets and boards in place.
• Structural reforms were delayed, with legislative and implementation gaps.
• Key reforms such as collective bargaining and liberalization of restricted professions had limited progress.
• The Doing Business ranking improved only slightly, from 101 to 100 out of 183.

6. Macroeconomic Framework and Outlook

• The growth outlook was revised downward due to the deepening recession and slow reform implementation.
• Potential growth is expected to be 2.5% annually in the medium term, down from 3% previously.
• Inflation is expected to remain below pre-crisis levels due to structural reforms and wage adjustments.
• Competitiveness gap is projected to slowly narrow over the next decade, with the real effective exchange rate expected to improve by 10%.
• External sector adjustment is expected to accelerate in the medium term, with the trade balance projected to turn into a surplus by 2014, one year earlier than previously anticipated.

7. Risks and Challenges

• Risks to the program include external pressures (e.g., worsening outlook for the Euro area) and internal implementation challenges.
• Private sector deleveraging is driven by credit constraints, not just economic weakness.
• Consumer and business confidence may be further eroded by prolonged PSI discussions and credit crunches.
• A downward spiral of fiscal austerity, falling disposable incomes, and depressed sentiment is a potential risk if reforms are delayed or not fully implemented.

Key Information

• The PSI agreement was a key element in the debt restructuring process, aiming for a 50% haircut on private Greek debt.
• Market sentiment has been extremely volatile, with CDS spreads reaching record highs.
• The banking sector has been heavily impacted by sovereign debt exposure, with capital ratios below acceptable levels.
• Fiscal consolidation has been challenged by recessionary pressures and policy implementation delays.
• Privatization has advanced in planning, but actual sales have been slow.
• Structural reforms are delayed, with implementation gaps and institutional resistance.
• The growth outlook is modest, with GDP contraction expected in 2011 and 2012.
• Competitiveness is being addressed through wage cuts, but productivity gains are limited.
• The external sector is expected to adjust faster in the medium term due to recession and private sector savings.
• The banking system remains fragile, with significant exposure to Greek government bonds and capital constraints.

Conclusion

The Fifth Review of Greece's SBA highlights the challenges faced by the country in terms of fiscal sustainability, banking sector stability, and structural reform implementation. Despite some progress, the economic outlook remains uncertain, with continued pressures from recession, debt restructuring, and market sentiment. The IMF and European partners are monitoring the situation closely, and the new coalition government is committed to the program, though implementation risks remain high.