2024-02-04-莱坊-Guangzhou_office_market_report_Q4_2023_6页_1mb

报告摘要

Moderate Recovery: Q4 showed a cyclical recovery with net absorption at its highest level in the past two years (313,094 sqm), equivalent to 70% of full-year 2021.
Rent Decline: The average rent decreased by 17% year-on-year (YoY) to RMB 140.8/sqm/month, and quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) by 2.3%. Pazhou sub-market experienced the largest QoQ decline due to a regional price war.
Vacancy Rate: The overall vacancy rate decreased to 12.4%, the lowest level in two years.

New Supply: Pazhou saw significant new supply (95,000 sqm Q4), but the city-wide vacancy rate fell by 1.5% YoY, mainly due to effective "price for volume" strategies.
Strong Leasing Demand: Financial (25%) and professional services drove leasing demand. Relocations remained the dominant leasing type, while new tenancies grew significantly.

Limited Activity: Only one en-bloc transaction worth RMB 7.5 billion occurred in Q4, the highest-value transaction of the year. Overall investment activity remained cautious due to weak macroeconomic conditions.
Supply Imbalance: New supply of over 1.3 million sqm is expected to enter the market in 2024, putting downward pressure on rents and increasing vacancy rates.

Zhujiang New Town: Strongest net absorption (157.0 RMB/sqm/month rent, 10.1% vacancy). Law firms were a major driver.
Tianhe North: Lower vacancy (6.1%) but below-average rent (140.9 RMB/sqm/month).
Pazhou: Highest vacancy (23.1%) and largest rent decline due to price war.
Yuexiu: Balanced vacancy (8.2%) and moderate rent (115.6 RMB/sqm/month).

Rent Trend: Rents are expected to continue their downward trend due to heavy supply release.
Vacancy Rate: May fluctuate upwards as new supply increases.
Investment: Investors remain cautious due to insufficient macroeconomic momentum and weak demand.
Overall: The market is in a "basing" phase, with recovery expected to be moderate and gradual.

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