2024-08-15-莱坊-Guangzhou_office_market_report_Q2_2024_6页_1mb

报告摘要

The market is gradually recovering, but growth momentum remains slow.
Net absorption of 31,618 sqm recorded in Q2, slightly up from Q1 and down sequentially (1.7% QoQ decrease after net zero absorption in Q1).
Average effective rent decreased QoQ by 1.7% to RMB 135.00 per sqm/month.
Overall vacancy rate increased QoQ by 0.5% to 12.0%.

Leasing Demand & Supply: Primarily driven by new supply (e.g., Poly South Finance Tower adding 50,000 sqm). Financial City leads leasing demand. TMT, Manufacturing, and Professional Services are the main sourcing sectors.
Vacancy Rate: Increasing, primarily due to declining rental prices and continued new supply (estimated 100,000 sqm expected in Q3).
Rental Level: Continues downward trend. Prices have fallen in most submarkets (except Zhujiang New Town). Zhujiang New Town showed moderate recovery. Yuexiu saw the largest decrease (1.7% or 1.4% in monthly rent). Rents remain high relative to vacancy rates in some areas.
Supply: New supply commencing slowly, with projects like Pazhou, Baietan, and Guangzhou South Station planned for 2024-2026. New supply in Q2 was significantly less compared to corresponding periods in previous years.

Tenants: New leasing demand is strong, but tenant churn remains a factor in some submarkets, contributing to vacancy. Price flexibility is noted.
Investment Market: Activity remains slow. The supply of new office space is putting pressure on rental costs and overall market conditions. Developers are cautiously exploring transactions.

Expectations of continued net absorption pressure and vacancy growth.
Further downward pressure on rental levels remains likely due to the overall challenging macroeconomic environment and supply-absorption balance.
Organized capital expenditure in the investment market is expected to continue mainly in the core offices and logistics sectors.