2025-07-21-莱坊-Guangzhou_office_market_report_Q2_2025页_1mb

报告摘要

Market Recovery Dynamics: The Guangzhou Grade-A office market showed a mild recovery in Q2 2025, driven by "strong supply growth paired with moderate demand rebound." The vacancy rate increased by 0.3 percentage points to 15.0%, while average rents declined by 2.5% QoQ to RMB 124.5/sqm/month, reflecting persistent supply-demand disequilibrium.
New Supply Impact: New supply reached 83,000 sqm (Taiping Financial Tower), surpassing demand absorption (41,643 sqm), contributing to vacancy rate pressure.
Demand Drivers: Top sectors driving leasing activity were TMT (43.9%), professional services (26.7%), and financial services (9.1%), with TMT leading submarkets like Baiyun Lake TDM Park’s development.
Outlook Q3 2025: The market faces continued vacancy and rent pressure due to new supply influx (over 200,000 sqm planned). Landlords may rely on incentives to retain tenants, while investment activity remains sluggish.

Rent Decline: Average rent fell 2.5% QoQ, marking the 16th consecutive quarter of adjustment. Submarkets with aging stock (e.g., Yuexiu, Tianhe North) saw sharper declines (5.7% and 4.6% respectively).
Leasing Strategies: Landlords adopted combo incentives (flexible leases, fit-out subsidies, extended rent-free periods) to compete with emerging hubs like Financial District.
Tenant Behavior: Relocation demand fell to 34.3%, with 64.3% opting for downgrades, reflecting cost rationalization. New setups saw growth in biomedicine and TMT.

Structural Imbalance: New supply outpaced demand recovery, pushing vacancy rates higher. Submarket indicators reveal divergence in rental trends (e.g., Zhujiang New Town’s resilience vs. Yuexiu’s decline).
Key Demand Sectors: TMT, professional services, education/training, and insurance/funds sustained leasing activity. High-value sectors like biopharma and digital services drove countercyclical growth.

En Bloc Dominance: Self-use demand from TMT companies (e.g., Xinxuan acquiring land in Baiyun Lake) shaped investments, while traditional investment-driven activity slowed.
Valuation Pressures: Low absorption and vacancy rates suppressed investment interest in prime districts. New supply increases may prolong market stability challenges.

Tianhe North: Rent down 4.6% to RMB 116.7/sqm/mth, vacancy rate ↓0.8% to 7.5%.
Zhujiang New Town: Rent down slightly (1.2%), vacancy rate up 0.5% to 12.4%.
Yuexiu: Hardest hit with rent down 5.7% and vacancy rate stable at 8.5%.
Pazhou & Financial City: Lower vacancy rates but subdued rental growth (23.9% & 47.7% respectively).

Q3 2025 Prediction: New supply increases are set to worsen vacancy pressures, while demand recovery (from TMT and biomedicine) may be temporary. The market faces a structural imbalance unless macroeconomic conditions improve.

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