20160114-USDA-Feed_Outlook_16页_626kb

Economic Research Service Feed Outlook Summary - FDS-16a, January 14, 2016

Core Content Overview

This report provides an update on U.S. and global feed grain production, use, and prices for the 2015/16 marketing year. It highlights changes in supply and demand dynamics, price trends, and international trade movements, with a focus on corn, sorghum, barley, and oats.

Key Information

U.S. Corn Outlook

• Production: Estimated at 13.6 billion bushels, down 52 million from the previous forecast.
• Imports: Increased by 10 million bushels, partially offsetting the production decline.
• Use: Total use is projected down by 60 million bushels, primarily due to a 50-million-bushel reduction in exports and a 10-million-bushel drop in use for sweeteners.
• Ending Stocks: Increased modestly to 1,802 million bushels, the highest since 2005/06.
• Farm Price: The season-average farm price is projected at $3.60 per bushel, down 5 cents from the previous range.

Feed and Residual Use

• Total Feed and Residual Use: Projected at 145.2 million tons for the 2015/16 marketing year, slightly down from the previous month's forecast.
• Corn's Share: Corn accounts for 92% of total feed and residual use, down from 94% in the previous year.
• Animal Units: The projected index of grain-consuming animal units (GCAU) is 93.42 million, down from 94.60 million in November but up from 92.60 million in the previous year.

Sorghum Outlook

• Production: Estimated at 597 million bushels, up 3 million bushels from the previous month.
• Supply: Total supplies are at 620 million bushels, the highest since 2005/06.
• Ending Stocks: Increased to 65 million bushels, up from 18 million bushels in the previous year.
• Farm Price: Projected range is $3.05 to $3.55 per bushel, with a midpoint of $3.30, down from $3.50.

Barley Outlook

• Balance Sheet: Unchanged, with a 2.0-million-bushel increase in exports.
• Ending Stocks: Projected at 95 million bushels, up 16 million from the previous year.
• Farm Price: Range increased to $5.00 to $5.50 per bushel, with a midpoint of $5.25.

Oats Outlook

• Balance Sheet: No changes, with a slight narrowing of the price range to $2.10 to $2.30 per bushel.
• Midpoint Price: Remains at $2.20 per bushel.

Hay Outlook

• Production: Down 4% from 2015 at 134.4 million tons.
• Stocks: Up 3% from 2015 to 95.0 million tons.
• Prices: Seasonal declines, with November all-hay price at $142 per ton, and alfalfa hay at $150 per ton.

Corn Silage Outlook

• Production: Down 1.2 million tons from the previous year to 126.9 million tons.
• Per RCAU: Silage production per roughage-consuming animal unit is 1.81 million tons, down from 1.89 million tons in the previous year.

International Outlook

Global Corn Production

• World Production: Projected down 6.6 million tons to 1,261.9 million tons, with U.S. output also reduced.
• South Africa: Corn production cut by 4.0 million tons due to early season drought.
• Russia: Coarse grain production down 1.7 million tons, with rye and oats also reduced.
• Pakistan: Barley production reduced, cutting use.
• Ukraine: Coarse grain production up 0.4 million tons, with corn increased by 0.5 million tons.
• China: Coarse grain production up 0.1 million tons, with increased sorghum and barley output offsetting reduced corn production.

Global Corn Use

• Total Use: Projected down 4.6 million tons to 1,260.3 million tons, slightly less than the previous year.
• Key Reductions: South Africa (0.7 million tons), Pakistan (0.4 million tons), Saudi Arabia (0.3 million tons), and others.
• China: Coarse grain use up 0.7 million tons, driven by increased barley and sorghum feed use.

Global Ending Stocks

• World Ending Stocks: Projected down 2.2 million tons to 244.8 million tons, still record large.
• U.S. Stocks: Up 0.6 million tons to 11,211 million bushels.
• China: Ending stocks down 0.6 million tons to 114.8 million tons.
• Other Countries: Ending stocks reduced for Russia, Pakistan, Argentina, and Saudi Arabia, while increased for India and Australia.

International Corn Exports

• World Trade: Projected up 0.5 million tons to 128.3 million tons.
• U.S. Exports: Cut by 50 million bushels (1.0 million tons) to 43.5 million tons.
• Brazil and Argentina: Increased exports, creating competition for U.S. corn.
• South Africa: Net corn importer due to drought.
• Mexico: Increased corn exports to 1.0 million tons, supported by demand for white corn.
• Ukraine: Exports up 0.5 million tons to 15.5 million tons.
• India: Exports down to 0.7 million tons due to strong internal demand.

Main Points

• U.S. Corn: Production and exports are down, but ending stocks are up due to reduced use.
• Global Corn: Production and use are down, but stocks remain record high, especially in China.
• Competition: Brazil and Argentina are increasing corn exports, impacting U.S. market share.
• Prices: U.S. corn prices are lower, supporting import demand from South America.
• Sorghum: Supplies are up due to higher yields and imports, with ending stocks at a record high.
• Barley: Exports increased, but ending stocks decreased slightly.
• Oats: No major changes, with stable price range.
• Hay: Production and stocks are up, but prices are down due to seasonal trends and supply adjustments.

Summary Table

Key Trends

• Global corn stocks remain record large, with China holding over half.
• U.S. corn exports face competition from Brazil, Argentina, and others.
• Reduced corn production in South Africa and other regions affects global supply.
• Prices are trending downward, influenced by supply and demand dynamics.
• Sorghum and barley show signs of increased supply and use, with sorghum ending stocks at a record high.
• Hay production and stocks are up, but prices are down due to seasonal factors.