20170512-USDA-USDA_Feed_Outlook_2017.05.12_27页_1012kb

2017/18 U.S. and Global Corn and Coarse Grain Outlook Summary

Core Content

This document provides an outlook for U.S. and global corn and coarse grain production, supply, use, and prices for the 2017/18 marketing year, as well as a comparison with the previous year (2016/17). It outlines the factors influencing supply and demand, including weather, crop rotations, export competition, and policy changes.

Main Points

U.S. Corn Outlook

• Production: Projected at 14,065 million bushels, a 7% decline from 2016/17 due to lower yields and some producers switching to soybeans.
• Acreage: Expected to be 90.0 million acres, 4 million less than 2016/17.
• Supply: Total supply for 2017/18 is 16,410 million bushels, 4.6% below 2016/17, but still the second highest on record.
• Use:
  • FSI Use: Increased by 80 million bushels to 7,000 million, driven by higher ethanol, high fructose corn syrup, and starch use.
  • Feed and Residual: Declined by 75 million bushels to 5,400 million.
  • Exports: Projected down 350 million bushels to 1,875 million.
• Ending Stocks: Reduced by 185 million bushels to 2,100 million, still high but down from the previous year.
• Price: Forecast to remain unchanged at $3.40 per bushel.

U.S. Coarse Grain Outlook

• Feed Grain Supplies: Lower by 4% to 435.7 million metric tons, but still the second highest on record.
• Sorghum:
  • Production: Down 31% to 331 million bushels.
  • Ending stocks: Projected at 23.9 million bushels, about half of the previous year.
  • Price: Projected at $2.60 to $3.40 per bushel, with a midpoint of $3.00, up from last year.
• Barley:
  • Production: Down 20% to 159 million bushels.
  • Ending stocks: Projected at 76.4 million bushels, 19 million below 2016/17.
  • Price: Midpoint at $4.85 per bushel, down from $4.95.
• Oats:
  • Disappearance: Up 1 million bushels to 172.0 million.
  • Ending stocks: Projected at 40.6 million bushels, down 5 million from the previous year.
  • Price: Midpoint at $2.20 per bushel, up $0.15 from last year.

Global Coarse Grain Outlook

• Production: Forecast to decrease slightly by 1% to 1,311.8 million tons.
• Use:
  • Global coarse grain use is expected to grow slowly, with a 4% increase in feed and residual use in 2017/18.
  • China is a key driver of global use growth, particularly in FSI (food, seed, and industrial) use.
• Stocks:
  • Global ending stocks are projected to fall by 15% to 221.4 million tons.
  • Corn: Ending stocks are expected to drop 28.6 million tons to 195.3 million, the first year-over-year decline since 2010/11.
  • China: Leading the decline in global coarse grain stocks, with a 20% drop in corn stocks.
  • EU: Ending stocks projected down 1.0 million tons to 12.5 million.
  • U.S.: Ending stocks are projected down 5.8 million tons to 82.1 million.

Key Trends and Influences

• Export Competition: Brazil, Argentina, and Ukraine are expected to increase their corn production and exports, reducing U.S. market share.
• Policy Impact: China's elimination of state price support for corn has led to a contraction in corn area, while its support for feed producers has increased corn usage.
• Weather and Yields: Weather conditions in the U.S. have slowed planting and emergence rates, affecting supply and yield projections.
• Market Dynamics: Lower prices in some regions have discouraged expansion of coarse grain area, while in others, such as South America and the FSU region, increased area and yields are expected.

Summary Table of Key Projections

Conclusion

The 2017/18 U.S. corn and coarse grain outlook is characterized by reduced production and supply, driven by lower yields and shifting crop preferences. Despite these declines, FSI use is expected to increase due to demand from ethanol, food processing, and industrial applications. Global coarse grain production is projected to decrease slightly, but China's policy changes and increased consumption are expected to significantly impact global stocks and trade dynamics. U.S. exports face stiff competition from South American and FSU countries, with the U.S. share of global corn trade trending downward.