20161114-USDA-USDA_Feed_Outlook_2016.11.14_15页_651kb

报告摘要

U.S. Corn Outlook Summary - November 2016

Core Content Overview

This document provides an update on the U.S. and world feed grains outlook for the 2016/17 marketing year, as well as historical data for prior years. The key areas of focus include production, use, trade, and prices for corn, sorghum, barley, and oats. The data reflects adjustments based on recent harvest results, consumption trends, and international trade dynamics.

Main Points

U.S. Corn Production

Yield: Projected at 175.3 bushels per acre, an increase of 1.9 bushels from the previous month.
Production: Raised to 15,226 million bushels, up 168 million bushels from the previous month.
Supply: Total supply is estimated at 17,013 million bushels, a record high.
Stocks: Ending stocks are projected at 2,403 million bushels, the highest since 1987/88.
Price: The average price received by farmers is raised to $3.00–$3.60 per bushel, with a midpoint of $3.30 per bushel.

Corn Use

Food, Seed, and Industrial (FSI) Use: Increased by 85 million bushels due to higher demand for ethanol, sweeteners, and starch.
FSI Use for 2016/17: Projected at 6,735 million bushels.
Feed and Residual Use: Estimated at 5,650 million bushels, down slightly from the previous month to 5,650 million bushels.
Grain Consuming Animal Units (GCAU): Projected at 95.49 million, slightly lower than the previous month but up from 2015/16.

Sorghum Outlook

Production: Projected at 462.17 million bushels, down 4 million bushels from the previous month.
Yield: Reduced to 76.5 bushels per acre, a decrease of 0.7 bushels.
Use: Feed and residual use is estimated at 4,600 million bushels, with FSI use at 1,200 million bushels.

International Outlook

World Coarse Grains Production

Total Production: Projected at 1,319.7 million tons, up 4.9 million tons from the previous month.
U.S. Contribution: U.S. production is up 4.2 million tons to 404.1 million tons.
Foreign Production: Increased slightly to 915.5 million tons, with small increases in some regions offset by declines in others.

World Coarse Grains Use

Total Use: Projected at 1,314.5 million tons, up 2.6 million tons from the previous month.
Feed and Residual Use: Estimated at 790.6 million tons, with the largest increase in Iran due to higher poultry production and corn imports.

World Coarse Grains Stocks

Ending Stocks: Projected at 250.5 million tons, up 1.2 million tons from the previous month.
Foreign Stocks: Reduced by 0.8 million tons to 185.6 million tons.
Ukraine: Leading increase in stocks at 2.4 million tons due to higher corn production.

World Corn Trade

Total Trade: Projected at 177.7 million tons, up 0.5 million tons from the previous month.
Ukraine and Russia: Export forecasts increased due to higher production and competitive prices.
U.S. Exports: Remain at 56.5 million tons, the highest since 2007/08.
Iran: Increased corn imports by 6.0 million tons, driven by poultry expansion and high domestic prices.

Key Information

Domestic Feed Grains Use: Corn accounts for 91% of feed and residual use in 2016/17, down from 94% in 2015/16.
Supply and Demand Balance: Despite increased production, the season-average price received by farmers rose due to early-season price strength.
Data Sources: All data is sourced from the USDA, Foreign Agricultural Service, Production, Supply and Distribution online database.
Tables and Maps: Tables A1 and A2 provide country-specific production changes, while maps B and D illustrate changes in feed and residual use and corn imports, respectively.

Summary of Changes

Category	Change
U.S. Corn Yield	+1.9 bushels to 175.3 bushels per acre
U.S. Corn Production	+168 million bushels to 15,226 million bushels
U.S. Corn Supply	+168 million bushels to 17,013 million bushels
U.S. Corn Stocks	+83 million bushels to 2,403 million bushels
U.S. Corn FSI Use	+85 million bushels to 6,735 million bushels
U.S. Corn Feed and Residual Use	-1.9 million bushels to 5,650 million bushels
U.S. Sorghum Production	-4 million bushels to 462.17 million bushels
U.S. Sorghum Yield	-0.7 bushels to 76.5 bushels per acre
World Coarse Grains Production	+4.9 million tons to 1,319.7 million tons
World Coarse Grains Use	+2.6 million tons to 1,314.5 million tons
World Coarse Grains Stocks	+1.2 million tons to 250.5 million tons
World Corn Trade	+0.5 million tons to 177.7 million tons
Iran Corn Imports	+6.0 million tons due to poultry expansion and domestic price levels