20180514-USDA-USDA_Feed_Outlook_2018.05.14_38页_2mb

报告摘要

Economic Research Service | Situation and Outlook Report Summary

Core Content Overview

This report provides a comprehensive outlook on the U.S. and global feed grain markets for the 2018/19 marketing year. It covers projections for domestic and international production, supply, demand, and prices, as well as a special focus on Russia and Ukraine.

Domestic Outlook

U.S. Corn Outlook

Projected Crop: 14.0 billion bushels, down 675 million bushels from the previous year due to smaller area and lower yield.
Supply: 16,272 million bushels, the third highest ever, but still 675 million below last year's record.
Disappearance: 14,600 million bushels, a 175-million-bushel decline from the previous year.
Carryout: 1,682 million bushels, 500 million below last year, leading to a stocks-to-use ratio of 11.5, the lowest since 2013.
Prices: Midpoint of the forecast price range is $3.80 per bushel, up $0.40 from last season.
Planting Acreage: 88.0 million acres, 2.1 million below the previous year.
Yield: 174.0 bushels per acre, 2.6 below the previous year's record.
Export Prospects: Expected to be robust in the first half of the marketing year due to reduced Brazilian corn supply, but face increased competition from Argentina, Ukraine, and Russia, which are projected to increase exports by over 8 million tons.
Feed and Residual Use: Projected at 5,375 million bushels, down 125 million bushels due to higher prices and a smaller crop.
FSI Use: Up 75 million bushels to 7,115 million, driven by increased ethanol use (up 50 million bushels), glucose/dextrose (up 20 million), and starch (up 5 million).

U.S. Sorghum Outlook

Planted Area: 5.9 million acres, with 5.1 million expected to be harvested.
Yield: 67.3 bushels per acre.
Production: 343.0 million bushels, down 5.1 million from last year.
Supply: 372.3 million bushels, including beginning stocks of 29.3 million and imports of 20 million.
Use: Domestic use is projected at 180 million bushels, up 55 million, with 98 million bushels for ethanol.
Exports: Projected at 165 million bushels, down 80 million due to China's anti-dumping policies.
Prices: Midpoint is $3.60 per bushel, up $0.40 from the previous year.
Carryout: Projected at 47.3 million bushels, down 18 million from last season.

U.S. Barley Outlook

Planted Area: 2.3 million acres, down 0.2 million from the previous year.
Harvested Area: 2.0 million acres.
Yield: 73.5 bushels per acre.
Production: 147.0 million bushels, down 5.1 million.
Supply: 232.3 million bushels, including beginning stocks of 65.3 million and imports of 20 million.
Use: 185 million bushels, down 8 million, with FSI use declining due to reduced beer production and tighter supplies.
Exports: 5 million bushels, up slightly due to strong world market prices.
Prices: Midpoint of $4.60 per bushel, up $0.10 from last year.

U.S. Oats Outlook

Planted Area: 2.7 million acres, up from 2.6 million.
Harvested Area: 1.0 million acres.
Yield: 66.0 bushels per acre.
Production: 66.0 million bushels.
Supply: 182.2 million bushels, down due to lower beginning stocks.
Use: 154.0 million bushels, down 9.0 million.
Feed and Residual Use: Down 10.0 million to 75.0 million.
Exports: Down to 2.0 million bushels.
Prices: Midpoint of $2.85 per bushel, up $0.50 from last year.

Hay Outlook

On-Farm Stocks: 15.7 million short tons, the lowest since 2013, down 36 percent from the previous year.
Prices: $140 per ton, up $11 from last year.
Harvested Area: 53.7 million acres, slightly lower than 2017.

International Outlook

Global Coarse Grain Production

Projected Production: 1,341.1 million tons, up 24.4 million tons (almost 2%) from the previous year.
U.S. Production: Down 14.5 million tons (4%) due to smaller area and lower yield.
Foreign Production: Up 38.9 million tons (over 4%), driven by area expansion in Brazil, Russia, Ukraine, and China.

Key Countries

Brazil: Projected to increase corn area to record highs, with corn production up 9.0 million tons to 96.0 million due to a return to trend yields.
Argentina: Projected to reduce corn area slightly but increase soybean area, with corn output up 8.0 million tons to 41.0 million.
Russia and Ukraine: Both are expanding corn and oilseed areas, with Russia's corn area expected to grow due to improved yields and increased livestock demand.
China: Projected to increase corn production by 9.4 million tons to 232.8 million, with higher area and record-high yields. Government support is increasing domestic use of corn for feed and industrial purposes.
EU: Projected to increase coarse grain production by 1.4 million tons to 154.4 million, with higher barley output in some countries offset by slightly lower corn production.

Country Focus: Russia and Ukraine

Crop Area Transition: Both countries saw a significant reduction in crop area during the early 1990s transition to market economies, mainly due to the decline of the livestock sector and reduced subsidies.
Recent Expansion: Since 2005, both countries have seen substantial growth in corn and oilseed (sunflowerseed) areas, with corn area more than doubling.
Livestock Recovery: The revival of the livestock sector, especially poultry, has increased domestic demand for feed, driving area expansion.
Yield Improvements: New agricultural operators and technology adoption have contributed to increased yields, particularly in corn and oilseeds.
Abandoned Land: Some land previously abandoned in marginal regions may be re-cultivated, but this would require significantly higher world grain prices.
Export Growth: Russia and Ukraine have become major corn exporters, with combined exports expected to reach 49.0 million tons in 2018/19.
References: The report cites several studies on the economic and agricultural changes in Russia and Ukraine.

Key Information Summary

U.S. Corn: Supply and disappearance are both down, with carryout at a 500-million-bushel deficit.
Global Competition: Argentina, Ukraine, and Russia are increasing corn exports, affecting U.S. market share.
China's Role: Strong demand from China supports higher prices for sorghum and barley, leading to global area expansion.
Price Trends: U.S. corn prices are expected to range from $3.25 to $4.30 per bushel, with a midpoint of $3.80.
Barley and Oats: Both are projected to have lower use and supply, with barley prices expected to rise.
Russia and Ukraine: Both have seen a shift in crop mix towards corn and oilseeds, driven by market reforms and increased livestock demand.

Main Points

U.S. Corn: Projected to be smaller in both area and yield, with a lower supply and disappearance.
Global Corn Production: Expected to increase due to area expansion in several countries, but U.S. production is projected to decline.
Export Competition: Increased from Argentina, Ukraine, and Russia threatens U.S. market share.
China's Influence: Strong demand for sorghum and barley supports global area expansion and price increases.
Livestock Sector Recovery: Driving demand for feed grains in Russia and Ukraine.
Price Volatility: Influenced by export policies, supply changes, and global demand shifts.
Yield Trends: Significant improvements in yield in Russia and Ukraine, while some countries see declines.