20161014-USDA-USDA_Feed_Outlook_25页_885kb

Economic Research Service Feed Outlook Summary - October 14, 2016

Core Content Overview

This report provides an analysis of the U.S. and global feed grain production, supply, use, and trade outlook for the 2016/17 marketing year. It includes updates to production forecasts, changes in supply and demand, and implications for prices and trade flows.

U.S. Domestic Outlook

Corn Production

• Production: Forecast at 15,057 million bushels, a 36 million bushel decrease from the previous month.
• Yield: Increased slightly to 173.4 bushels per acre, 5 bushels above last year.
• Exports: Projected to rise to 2,225 million bushels, up 50 million bushels.
• Ending Stocks: Reduced by 63 million bushels to 1,738 million bushels, with a midpoint price increase of 5 cents to $3.25 per bushel.
• Total Supply: Projected at 16,845 million bushels, the highest on record.
• Feed and Residual Use: Estimated at 5,192 million bushels, down 122 million from 2014/15.

Sorghum Production

• Production: Forecast down 22 million bushels to 467 million bushels due to a 450,000-acre reduction in Texas.
• Yield: Record high at 77.2 bushels per acre.
• Carryin: Increased by 1.5 million bushels.
• Total Supply: Projected at 504 million bushels.
• Ending Stocks: Reduced to 44 million bushels.
• Feed and Residual Use: Reduced by 5 million bushels.

Barley Production

• Production: Forecast at 199 million bushels, down 9% from the revised 2015 total.
• Yield: Increased to 77.9 bushels per acre, the highest on record since 1866.
• Total Use: Raised by 5 million bushels to 223 million bushels.
• Ending Stocks: Reduced to 4.3 million tons.
• Feed and Residual Use: Increased by over 4 million bushels to 50 million bushels.

Oats Production

• Production: Forecast at 65 million bushels, with a 184,000-acre reduction in harvested area.
• Yield: Unchanged at 66 bushels per acre.
• Total Supply: Projected at 212 million bushels.
• Feed and Residual Use: Projected down by 5 million bushels to 90 million bushels.
• Ending Stocks: Reduced to 47 million bushels.

Hay Production

• Production: Forecast at 141.6 million tons, up 7 million from 2015.
• Yield: Increased to 2.52 tons per acre.
• Harvested Acres: Forecast at 56.1 million acres.
• Alfalfa Hay: Projected at 62.8 million tons, up 7% from 2015.
• Supply per RCAU: Unchanged at 2.29 tons for both 2015/16 and 2016/17.

Global Outlook

Coarse Grain Production

• Total World Production: Projected down 5.0 million tons to 1,314.8 million tons.
• Foreign Production: Down 3.6 million tons to 914.8 million tons.
• U.S. Production: Down 1.4 million tons to 400.0 million tons.

Coarse Grain Use

• World Feed and Residual Use: Increased by 0.8 million tons to 790.3 million tons.
• Foreign Feed and Residual Use: Increased by 0.7 million tons to 641.4 million tons.
• U.S. Feed and Residual Use: Slightly unchanged at 149.0 million tons.

Coarse Grain Stocks

• World Ending Stocks: Reduced by 4.1 million tons to 249.3 million tons.
• U.S. Ending Stocks: Reduced by 22 million bushels to 1,738 million bushels.
• Foreign Corn Ending Stocks: Down 1.0 million tons to 157.9 million tons.

Corn Trade

• World Corn Trade: Increased by 4.0 million tons to a record 143.0 million tons.
• U.S. Exports: Up 1.0 million tons to 50.5 million tons.
• Brazil Exports: Up 1.9 million tons to a record 35.4 million tons.
• Argentina Exports: Up 0.8 million tons to 21.3 million tons.
• Vietnam and Iran Imports: Both increased by 0.8 and 0.7 million tons, respectively.

Key Trends and Changes

• Yield Growth Rates: The U.S. corn yield growth rate over the past 20 years is among the slowest, at 16%, compared to other major exporters like Argentina (35%) and Ukraine (100%).
• Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA):
  • Production Decline: Coarse grain production fell by nearly 15 million tons in 2015/16 due to drought.
  • Corn Output: Increased by 5 million tons in 2016/17, but still below the 4 years preceding the drought.
  • Imports: Record or second-record high for wheat, corn, and sorghum in 2015/16.
  • FSI Consumption: Declined year-over-year for the first time since 2007/08 due to lower production and higher imports.
• Balance Sheet Adjustments:
  • Corn: Ending stocks for 2015/16 were raised to 15,400 million bushels.
  • Sorghum: Ending stocks were adjusted based on Census Bureau import data.

Summary Table of Coarse Grain Production Changes

Conclusion

The 2016/17 feed grain outlook shows a mix of reduced production and increased use, with U.S. corn production remaining near record highs despite a slight yield decrease. Global coarse grain production and stocks are projected lower, but trade flows are expected to increase. The U.S. continues to be the largest producer and exporter of corn, with significant impacts on global markets due to its large share of output and exports.