20160114-USDA-USDA_Feed_Outlook_-_January_2016_16页_626kb

报告摘要

U.S. Economic Research Service (ERS) Feed Outlook Summary - January 14, 2016

Core Content Overview

This report provides a comprehensive analysis of U.S. and global feed grain production, use, and price outlooks for the 2015/16 marketing year. It highlights changes in supply and demand, export competition, and the impact of weather conditions and trade policies on the market.

U.S. Corn Outlook

Production: Estimated at 13.6 billion bushels, a 52 million bushel decrease from the previous forecast.
Imports: Increased by 10 million bushels, partially offsetting the production drop.
Use: Projected to decrease by 60 million bushels, primarily due to a 50 million bushel drop in exports and a 10 million bushel reduction in sweetener use.
Ending Stocks: Increased 17 million bushels to 1,802 million, the highest since 2005/06.
Farm Price: Midpoint of the projected range is $3.60 per bushel, down 5 cents from the previous month.
Export Competition: Intensified from Argentina, Brazil, Ukraine, and Mexico. South Africa's production is sharply reduced due to drought.
Yield: Reduced to 168.4 bushels per acre, with declines in Missouri, Indiana, Illinois, and Ohio. Increases in Minnesota, Iowa, Kentucky, and South Dakota.

Other Feed Grains Outlook

Sorghum

Production: Increased by 3 million bushels to 597 million, driven by higher harvested acreage despite a 1.7 bushel-per-acre yield decline.
Ending Stocks: Up to 65 million bushels, the highest since 2005/06.
Farm Price: Projected range lowered to $3.05–$3.55 per bushel, with a midpoint of $3.30 per bushel.

Barley

Balance Sheet: Unchanged, with a 2 million bushel increase in exports.
Ending Stocks: Up 16 million bushels to 95 million, slightly higher than the previous year.
Farm Price: Range increased by 10 cents on the low end to $5.00–$5.50 per bushel, with a midpoint of $5.25 per bushel.

Oats

Outlook: Steady with a 5-cent-per-bushel narrowing of the price range to $2.10–$2.30 per bushel, midpoint at $2.20 per bushel.

Hay

Production: Down 4 percent from 2015 to 134.4 million tons.
Ending Stocks: Up 3 percent to 95.0 million tons due to increased production and reduced disappearance.
Prices: Seasonal declines observed, with alfalfa hay at $150 per ton and other hay at $127 per ton in November.

Corn Silage Production

Production: Down 1.2 million tons to 126.9 million, due to a 150,000-acre reduction in harvested area, partially offset by 0.3 tons per acre higher yields.
Silage per RCAU: Down to 1.81 million tons, from 1.89 million in 2014/15.

Global Coarse Grain Outlook

World Production: Down 6.6 million tons to 1,261.9 million, with U.S. output also reduced.
South Africa: Corn production cut 4.0 million tons to 8.0 million due to drought and delayed planting. Sorghum production down 37 percent to 0.1 million tons.
Russia: Coarse grain production down 1.7 million tons, with rye production cut 1.2 million tons.
Ukraine: Coarse grain production up 0.4 million tons to 33.3 million, with corn up 0.5 million tons and sorghum down 0.1 million tons.
China: Coarse grain production up 0.1 million tons to 231.6 million, with sorghum and barley up, corn down.
Global Ending Stocks: Still record large at 244.8 million tons, down 2.2 million tons from previous estimates.

Export and Import Trends

U.S. Corn Exports: Down 50 million bushels to 1.7 billion bushels, with competition from Brazil and Argentina.
Brazil: Corn exports up 1.0 million tons to 35.0 million, but expected to decline in January and February.
Argentina: Exports up 0.5 million tons to 17.5 million due to policy changes and favorable exchange rates.
Mexico: Exports up 0.5 million tons to 1.0 million due to increased demand for white corn.
South Africa: Corn imports up 1.2 million tons to 1.7 million to support FSI and feed use.
China: Corn imports down 0.5 million tons to 2.5 million due to slower shipments from Ukraine and other countries.

Key Market Drivers

Supply and Demand: Reduced use outpaces supply, leading to higher ending stocks.
Price Trends: Corn prices remain low, with sorghum prices falling relative to corn.
Weather Impact: Drought in South Africa and delayed planting affect production and yield.
Trade Policies: Changes in export taxes and exchange rates influence global competitiveness.

Special Articles

"Boutique Brews, Barley, and the Balance Sheet" (January 2015)
"World Corn Use Expands Despite High Prices in 2012/13" (June 2013)
"Animal Unit Calculations—First Projections for the 2013/14 Crop Year" (May 2013)

Contacts and Resources

Thomas Capehart (Domestic): tCAPEhart@ers.usda.gov
Edward Allen (International): ewallen@ers.usda.gov
Verna Daniels (Web publishing): vblake@ers.usda.gov
Subscription: ERS e-mail notification service at http://www.ers.usda.gov/subscribers-to-ers-e-newsletters.aspx
Data: Feed Grains Database available at http://ers.usda.gov/data-products/feed-grains-database.aspx
Reports: Feed Outlook, WASDE, Grain Circular, World Agricultural Production, and Corn Briefing Room available on ERS website.