20170117-USDA-USDA_Feed_Outlook_2017.01.17_21页_795kb

Summary of U.S. Feed Outlook (FDS-17a, January 17, 2017)

Core Content Overview

The U.S. Feed Outlook report for the marketing year 2016/17 provides an analysis of production, supply, and use of major feed grains, including corn, sorghum, barley, and oats, as well as international trends and trade dynamics.

Main Points and Key Information

U.S. Corn Production and Supply

• Production: Estimated at 15,148 million bushels, a record high, with a 486,000-acre reduction in planted area and 88,000-acre reduction in harvested area compared to the previous month.
• Yield: Reduced by 0.7 bushels per acre to 174.6 bushels per acre.
• Supply: Projected at 16,940 million bushels, down 73.2 million from the previous month, but 1.5 billion bushels higher than the 2015/16 season.
• Imports: Increased by 5 million bushels to 55 million bushels.
• Ending Stocks: Reduced to 12,384 million bushels, down 0.713 million from the previous month.

Corn Use and Prices

• Feed and Residual Use: Reduced by 50 million bushels to 5,600 million bushels, reflecting a smaller crop, increased sorghum feeding, and higher expected corn prices.
• FSI Use: Increased by 25 million bushels to 6,760 million bushels, driven by higher ethanol use.
• Corn Prices: Forecasted to rise $0.05 per bushel to a midpoint of $3.40, with a range of $3.10 to $3.70.
• Ethanol Use: Projected at 5,325 million bushels, a record high for September-November, based on strong production during the midwinter season.

Sorghum Outlook

• Supply: Increased by 18.1 million bushels to 517.9 million, with a 16% decline from last year.
• Feed and Residual Use: Increased by 15 million bushels to 105 million, driven by competitive prices in interior markets.
• Prices: Forecasted to decrease $0.15 per bushel to a midpoint of $2.90, with a range of $2.65 to $3.15.
• Ending Stocks: Increased by 3.2 million bushels to 37.9 million, still within 1 bushel of the 2015/16 carryout.

Barley and Oats

• Barley: Supply is forecast at 317.4 million bushels, with a $0.05 per bushel increase in both the high and low ends of the price range to $4.60 to $5.20, with a midpoint of $4.90.
• Oats: Supply remains unchanged, with a $0.05 per bushel increase in price range to $1.80 to $2.10, a midpoint of $1.95.
• Ending Stocks: For barley, estimated at 36.6 million bushels in 2015/16, and 103.4 million bushels in 2016/17.

International Outlook

• Global Coarse Grain Production: Projected at 1,327.7 million tons, down 1.7 million tons or 0.1% from the previous month.
• U.S. Corn Production: The largest contributor to the global decline, down 1.5 million tons.
• Global Coarse Grain Use: Increased slightly by 0.3 million tons to 1,319.5 million, with Brazil showing the largest increase in corn feed use (+0.5 million tons).
• World Corn Trade: Projected at 142.1 million tons, up 0.4 million tons from the previous month.
• U.S. Exports: Unchanged at 56.5 million tons, but up 10% from the previous trade year.
• Imports: Increased for several countries, including Brazil and Bolivia, due to domestic shortages.

Key Trends and Impacts

• Domestic Demand: Feed and residual use is projected at 14,585 million bushels, down 25 million from the previous month but 922 million higher than 2015/16.
• Competition: U.S. exports face increased competition from Brazil and Argentina, especially as they prepare for their upcoming harvests.
• Price Dynamics: Corn prices are rising due to higher sales prices and expectations of higher prices for other major crops like soybeans and wheat.
• Supply-Demand Balance: The reduced U.S. corn crop is impacting global supply, while increased sorghum use and ethanol production are influencing domestic use patterns.

Data Sources and References

• NASS (National Agricultural Statistics Service): Provided updated crop production and yield data.
• WASDE (World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates): Used for forecasting and analysis.
• EIA (Energy Information Administration): Provided data on ethanol production.
• USDA's Foreign Agricultural Service: Analyzed international trade and production trends.
• Graph Gallery and Monthly Tables: Offer visual and detailed insights into supply and use changes.

Contacts and Subscription

• Tom Capehart (Domestic): tcapehart@ers.usda.gov | (202) 694-5313
• Olga Liefert (International): oliefert@ers.usda.gov | (202) 694-5155
• Subscription: Available via USDA's email notification service at http://www.ers.usda.gov/subscribers-to-ers-e-newsletters.aspx

Conclusion

The 2016/17 feed grain outlook highlights a reduced U.S. corn crop and increased ethanol use, leading to higher corn prices and a shift in feed grain utilization. While the U.S. corn supply remains strong, the global market is affected by the decline in U.S. production, and international trade is influenced by competition from Brazil and Argentina. Sorghum and barley prices and use are also impacted by domestic supply changes and market dynamics.