20160714-USDA-USDA_Feed_Outlook_2016.07.14_16页_685kb

报告摘要

Summary of Economic Research Service Feed Outlook (FDS-16g, July 14, 2016)

Core Content Overview

The Economic Research Service (ERS) released the Feed Outlook (FDS-16g) on July 14, 2016, providing projections for U.S. and global feed grain markets. The report outlines changes in production, supply, use, and prices for key commodities such as corn, sorghum, and barley, as well as the outlook for international trade and consumption.

Main Points and Key Information

U.S. Corn Outlook

Production: Projected at 14,540 million bushels for 2016/17, a 110 million bushel increase from the previous month and 939 million bushels above 2015.
Acreage: Harvested acreage is at 86.6 million acres, 650,000 acres more than the June 12 WASDE projection.
Yield: National average yield remains at 168.0 bushels per acre, unchanged from last month.
Prices: 2015/16 farm price midpoint is $3.65 per bushel, down 5 cents from previous month. 2016/17 midpoint is $3.40 per bushel, down 10 cents on both ends.
Exports: Raised to 2,050 million bushels for 2016/17, the highest since 2007, driven by Brazil's reduced corn output.
Stocks: June 1 corn stocks are 4,722 million bushels, 200 million higher than expected, leading to a lower projected use for 2015/16.

U.S. Feed Grain Supplies

Total Supply: Projected at 435.6 million tons for 2016/17, up 2.7 million tons from 2015/16.
Production: Increased by 3.0 million metric tons, due to higher corn, sorghum, and oats acreage.
Use: Feed and residual use is 144.9 million tons, up 0.8 million tons from 2015/16, with increased exports offsetting reduced domestic use.

Feed and Residual Use per Animal Unit

Projected at 1.60 tons per GCAU for 2016/17, up from 1.56 tons in the previous month.
GCAUs: Projected at 95.1 million units, slightly lower than last month.

Sorghum Outlook

Production: Projected at 420 million bushels for 2016/17, up 3 million bushels from the previous month.
Exports: Raised to 100 million bushels for 2016/17.
Prices: 2015/16 farm price range is $3.25 to $3.35, with a midpoint of $3.30. 2016/17 price range is $2.85 to $3.45, midpoint at $3.15.
Stocks: June 1 sorghum stocks are 88.3 million bushels, up from 34.3 million in the same period last year.

Barley Outlook

Production: Projected at 183 million bushels for 2016/17, down 10 million from the previous month and 32 million from 2015/16.
Prices: 2015/16 midpoint is $5.52 per bushel, down 2 cents from the previous month. 2016/17 midpoint is $4.70 per bushel, down 10 cents on both ends.
Supply: Projected at 305 million bushels for 2016/17, down 7 million from 2015/16.
Stocks: June 1 barley stocks are 102 million bushels, up from 79 million last year.

Oats Outlook

Production: Expected to rise by 9 million bushels to 428 million bushels for 2016/17.
Prices: 2015/16 midpoint is $2.15 per bushel, down 5 cents on both ends.
Supply: Projected at 228 million bushels for 2016/17, up 7 million from the previous month.

World Corn Outlook

Global Production: Reduced in 2015/16 to 1,248 million tons, down 0.5% from previous month and 4.4% from 2014/15.
Consumption: Projected to rise in 2016/17 to 1,303 million tons, up 52 million from 2015/16.
Trade: Global corn trade is expected to fall 4.0% in 2016/17, due to reduced EU and Chinese corn imports.

International Outlook

World Coarse Grain Supply: Expected to increase to 1,302 million tons for 2016/17, but consumption is reduced in several countries due to lower corn use and higher wheat feeding.
Global Ending Stocks: Forecast at 242 million tons for 2016/17, unchanged in absolute terms but lower relative to consumption.

Key Figures and Tables

Figure 1: U.S. feed grain ending stocks for 2016/17.
Figure 2: U.S. food, seed, and industrial use of corn for 2015/16.
Figure 3: U.S. corn exports for 2015/16.
Figure 4: U.S. sorghum exports.
Figure 5: World wheat feeding and U.S. corn/wheat farm price ratio.
Figure 6: World coarse grain ending stocks and consumption for 2016/17.

Contacts and Resources

Tom Capehart (Domestic): tcapehart@ers.usda.gov, (202) 694-5313
Stephen MacDonald (International): stephenm@ers.usda.gov, (202) 694-5610
Feed Grains Database: http://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/feed-grains-database.aspx
Subscription: Email notifications available at http://www.ers.usda.gov/subscribers-to-ers-e-newsletters.aspx
Printed Copies: Order from USDA Order Desk at (1-800-363-2068)

Conclusion

The report highlights increased U.S. corn production, higher feed grain supplies, and revised price forecasts for 2016/17. While global corn consumption and trade are projected lower due to increased wheat availability, U.S. corn exports are expected to rise significantly, particularly due to Brazil's production issues. Sorghum and barley supplies and prices are also adjusted, with sorghum production up and barley production down. The ERS continues to provide detailed data and analysis through its Feed Grains Database and email notification service.

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