Feed Outlook Summary - November 14, 2017
Core Content
The Feed Outlook report, released by the Economic Research Service (ERS) on November 14, 2017, provides an update on the supply and use of U.S. feed grains and their global counterparts for the marketing year 2017/18. It outlines the changes in production, use, and trade, as well as the implications for supply and prices.
Main Views
U.S. Corn Outlook
- Yield Forecast: The U.S. corn yield is forecasted at 175.4 bushels per acre, a record high and an increase of 3.6 bushels per acre from the previous month.
- Production: The U.S. corn production is estimated at 14,578 million bushels, a 297 million bushel increase from the previous month.
- Supply: Total corn supply is projected at 16,922 million bushels, up 1.8% from the previous month.
- Use: Feed and residual use is projected 1.54 tons per GCAU, up by 75 million bushels. Exports are also projected up by 75 million bushels.
- Disappearance: Total corn disappearance is projected at 14,435 million bushels.
- Carryout: Carryout is expected to increase by 147 million bushels to 2,487 million, the highest since 1987/88.
- Price: The projected corn price remains $3.20 per bushel, with a range of $2.80 to $3.60 per bushel.
U.S. Sorghum Outlook
- Yield Forecast: Sorghum yield is reduced by 1.8 bushels per acre to 70.4 bushels per acre.
- Production: Sorghum production is forecasted at 356 million bushels, down 8.8 million bushels from the previous month.
- Carryout: Carryout is reduced by 8.8 million bushels to 19.2 million.
- Price: Sorghum price is raised to $2.70 to $3.50 per bushel, with a midpoint of $3.10 per bushel.
U.S. Barley Outlook
- Use: Barley food, seed, and industrial use (FSI) for 2017/18 is raised by 9.0 million bushels to 162.0 million, driven by increased demand from the craft beer sector.
- Carryout: Carryout is reduced by 9.0 million bushels to 19.2 million.
- Price: Barley price is projected at $4.10 to $5.10 per bushel.
Key Information
Domestic Outlook
- Feed and Residual Use: Projected to increase by 1.9 million tons to 151.9 million for the 2017/18 marketing year.
- Grain Consuming Animal Units (GCAU): Raised by 0.7 million units to 98.3 million.
- Feed and Residual Use per GCAU: Projected to decrease slightly to 1.54 tons per GCAU.
- Total Use: Projected at 14,435 million bushels for 2017/18.
International Outlook
- World Coarse Grains Production: Projected to reach 1,322.6 million tons, up 3.2 million tons due to a significant increase in U.S. production.
- Corn Exports: U.S. corn exports are projected at 48.5 million bushels, up 1.5 million tons.
- Sorghum and Barley Trade: Trade of both sorghum and barley is expected to increase, with barley trade up by 0.5 million tons.
- Ukraine: Corn production is reduced due to lower yields and harvest reports.
- Mexico: Sorghum output is forecasted down, leading to increased corn imports from the U.S.
- Turkey: Barley production is reduced due to dry conditions.
- Russia: Corn production is lower than expected due to harvest reports.
- Vietnam: Corn area is reduced due to competition from cheap imported grains.
- EU: Corn production is up in Spain but down in Czech and Polish.
Trade and Market Impacts
- U.S. Corn Export Opportunities: With reduced Ukrainian corn output and higher freight costs from Ukraine, the U.S. has a competitive edge in the EU market.
- China's Demand: China's increased barley demand is expected to push prices up, with the country importing from major exporters.
- Feed Market Dynamics: Mexico is expected to import more corn to compensate for reduced sorghum availability.
Summary Tables
Table A1 - World and U.S. Coarse Grain Production
| Region/Country |
Production (Million tons) |
Change from Previous Month |
YoY Change |
| World |
1,322.6 |
+3.2 |
-42.8 |
| Foreign |
939.2 |
-4.1 |
-23.5 |
| United States |
383.4 |
+7.3 |
-19.2 |
Table A2 - Coarse Grain Foreign Production by Country
| Country |
Crop |
Production (Million tons) |
Change in Forecast |
YoY Change |
Comments |
| Ukraine |
Corn |
25.0 |
-2.0 |
-3.0 |
Lower yields |
| Mexico |
Sorghum |
4.6 |
-1.4 |
-0.1 |
Sugarcane aphid infestations |
| Turkey |
Barley |
6.4 |
-0.6 |
+1.7 |
Dryness during growing period |
| Russia |
Corn |
15.0 |
-0.3 |
-0.3 |
Lower yields |
| Vietnam |
Corn |
5.4 |
-0.3 |
+0.3 |
Reduced area |
| EU |
Corn |
59.6 |
+0.2 |
-1.5 |
Higher Spanish output |
Table 1 - Feed Grains: U.S. Quarterly Supply and Disappearance
| Commodity |
Market Year |
Quarter |
Production |
Imports |
Total Supply |
Food, Seed, and Industrial Use |
Feed and Residual Use |
Exports |
Total Disappearance |
Ending Stocks |
Farm Price |
| Corn |
2017/18 |
Mkt yr |
14,578 |
50 |
16,922 |
6,935 |
5,575 |
1,925 |
14,435 |
2,487 |
$3.20 |
| Sorghum |
2017/18 |
Mkt yr |
355.63 |
|
389.17 |
100.00 |
60.00 |
210.00 |
370.00 |
19.17 |
|
| Barley |
2017/18 |
Mkt yr |
142 |
100 |
200 |
78 |
90 |
2 |
170 |
30 |
$4.10-5.10 |
Table 2 - Feed and Residual Use of Wheat and Coarse Grains
| Market Year and Quarter |
Corn (Million metric tons) |
Sorghum (Million metric tons) |
Barley (Million metric tons) |
Oats (Million metric tons) |
Feed Grains (Million metric tons) |
Wheat (Million metric tons) |
Energy Feeds (Million metric tons) |
GCAU (Millions) |
Energy Feeds per GCAU (Tons) |
| 2017/18 |
141.6 |
1.5 |
1.1 |
1.8 |
146.0 |
5.9 |
151.9 |
98.3 |
1.5 |
Table 3 - Cash Feed Grain Prices
| Mkt Year and Month |
Corn, No. 2 Yellow, Central IL |
Corn, No. 2 Yellow, Gulf Ports, LA |
Sorghum, No. 2 Yellow, Gulf Ports, LA |
| 2015/16 |
3.55 |
4.22 |
8.08 |
| 2016/17 |
3.09 |
3.78 |
8.23 |
| 2017/18 |
3.15 |
3.74 |
7.89 |
Contacts and Resources
Additional Notes
- Latest Market Year: Projected; previous market year is estimated.
- Rounding: Totals may not add due to rounding.
- Marketing Years:
- Corn and Sorghum: September 1 - August 31
- Barley and Oats: June 1 - May 31
- Farm Price Calculation: Based on monthly prices weighted by marketings, with the latest market year calculated using the previous five years' data.
This report highlights the significant increase in U.S. corn production and its impact on domestic and international markets, as well as the effects of changing production forecasts on sorghum and barley.
