20251209-大越期货-尿素早报_11页_647kb

Urea Morning Report
Date: 2025-12-9
From: 大越期货投资咨询部
Author: 金泽彬

Market Overview: The urea market is assessed with a neutral to slightly positive tone based on improving inventory levels and rising demand, but concerns linger from domestic supply surplus and limited exports.

Fundamental Analysis: Current production and开工率 have decreased due to plant outages, leading to inventory drawdown. Agricultural demand shows recent strength from activities like 复合肥开工 rate increases and winter storage needs, while industrial demand remains steady. However, domestic supply exceeds demand, maintaining a surplus. Export activities face large price gaps, indicating underutilization. Data from sources like 钢联 shows long-term trends in production capacity, with estimates for 2025 showing continued growth.

Technical Analysis: The UR2601 contract has a basis of 44, with a 20-day moving average flat. Inventory levels are at 139.6万吨, indicating drawdown, but the price is below the 20-day moving average.主力持仓 is net short with decreasing positions, suggesting potential for rebound in short-term.

Market Outlook: Urea is expected to experience震荡反弹, driven by inventory drawdown and demand boost, but overall supply excess caps the upside. Long-term forecasts from historical data show consistent supply growth with demand matching.

Risks and Conclusion: Key risks include changes in export policies that could alter supply dynamics. This report is for reference only and not investment advice. Invest cautiously.