20230723-华泰期货-TA周报_TA负荷回升_加工费快速回落_11页_829kb

Summary of TA Weekly Report (2023-07-23)

Market Analysis

• PX Market: The 7-month period shows a small inventory drawdown cycle, with accumulation likely delayed until August-September. Near-term PX processing fees are firm, but far-end fees are expected to loosen. Suggested watch: inventory accumulation confirmation, U.S. gasoline demand peak, and 8-9-month restart conditions; short PX consideration only after these factors align.
• TA Market: High production rates, with demand potentially boosted by the Hangzhou Asian Games in September-October. Polyester demand remains resilient short-term, supporting a small inventory drawdown in July. TA processing fees are expected to range-bound due to supply-demand balance.

Strategy Recommendation

• Overall: Maintain a观望 stance due to ongoing uncertainties and short-term volatility.

Key Risks

• Crude oil price fluctuations
• U.S. gasoline consumption decline
• Sustained high rates of polyester production