2009年-ECB欧洲央行_Results_of_the_ECB_Survey_of_Professional_Forecasters_for_the_second_quarter_of_2009_5页_324kb

Summary of ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters for Q2 2009

Core Content

The ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) for the second quarter of 2009 provides insights into the expectations of professional forecasters regarding inflation, GDP growth, and unemployment in the euro area. The survey was conducted between April 16 and 20, 2009, and received 52 responses from experts affiliated with financial or non-financial institutions in the EU.

Inflation Expectations

• Short-term inflation expectations (2009 and 2010):
  SPF participants revised their inflation expectations downwards compared to the previous round (Q1 2009). The new estimates are 0.5% for 2009 and 1.3% for 2010.

• Factors influencing expectations:
  Most respondents attributed the downward revision to strong base effects from low commodity prices and declining food prices. However, some identified potential upward risks such as rising commodity prices, past wage agreements, and large liquidity in the economy.

• Comparison with other indicators:
  SPF inflation expectations are closer to the higher end of the ECB staff macroeconomic projections for 2009 and 2010. They are broadly in line with those of Consensus Economics and the Euro Zone Barometer.

• Probability distribution:
  The aggregate probability distribution for 2009 and 2010 shows a shift towards lower outcomes. The balance of risks is assessed as being on the downside due to weak economic activity, low firms' pricing power, and increasing unemployment. The probability of inflation being at or above 2% in the longer term decreased to 46% from 49% in the previous round.

Real GDP Growth Expectations

• 2009 GDP growth:
  SPF participants now expect a contraction of 3.4% in real GDP for 2009, a downward revision of 1.7 percentage points from the previous round.

• 2010 GDP growth:
  Growth expectations for 2010 were revised downwards by 0.4 percentage points, to 0.2%.

• Economic outlook:
  Respondents highlighted a broad-based economic downturn characterised by weak demand, both domestic and external. Factors such as weak investment and private consumption, financial market tensions, and tight financing conditions were mentioned as key influences on the short-term outlook.

• Probability distribution:
  The aggregate probability distribution for real GDP growth has shifted towards lower outcomes. There is a 37% probability of negative GDP growth in 2010. Uncertainty remains high, but most respondents expect some recovery in 2010, with differing views on whether it will occur in the first or second half of the year.

• Supporting factors for recovery:
  Expected improvements in euro area exports and world trade, along with fiscal stimulus packages and low policy interest rates, are seen as potential drivers of recovery.

• Longer-term growth expectations:
  Longer-term growth expectations (for 2013) were revised downwards to 1.9%, from 2.0% in the previous round. The balance of risks is assessed as slightly on the downside.

Unemployment Rate Expectations

• 2009 unemployment rate:
  The average unemployment rate is expected to reach 9.3%, an upward revision of 0.6 percentage points from the previous round.

• 2010 unemployment rate:
  Unemployment is expected to rise further to 10.5%, an upward revision of 1.1 percentage points.

• Longer-term unemployment expectations:
  Longer-term unemployment expectations were revised upwards by 0.6 percentage points, to 8.4%.

• Downside risks:
  Structural labour market policy measures were cited as a downside risk to the unemployment forecasts.

Key Comparisons and Notes

• SPF vs. ECB projections:
  SPF inflation expectations for 2009 and 2010 are closer to the higher end of the ECB's March 2009 macroeconomic projections.

• SPF vs. other surveys:
  SPF growth expectations are slightly below those of the ECB staff macroeconomic projections for 2009 and close to the mid-point of the range for 2010. They are broadly in line with the Euro Zone Barometer forecasts but slightly below those of Consensus Economics for 2009.

• Market-based indicators:
  The SPF results are compared with the break-even inflation rate, which is calculated as the yield spread between nominal and inflation-linked bonds. However, break-even inflation rates may include risk premia such as inflation uncertainty and liquidity premia, so they should not be interpreted as direct measures of inflation expectations.

• Survey Limitations:
  Aggregate SPF results reflect a heterogeneous set of subjective views, and the data is available on the ECB's website.