2007年-ECB欧洲央行_Results_of_the_ECB_Survey_of_Professional_Forecasters_for_the_second_quarter_of_2007_4页_301kb

ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters - Q2 2007 Summary

Core Content

The ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) for the second quarter of 2007 provides insights into the expectations of euro area inflation, GDP growth, and unemployment rate among professional forecasters affiliated with financial or non-financial institutions in the EU. The survey was conducted between 16 and 23 April 2007.

Inflation Expectations

• 2007 Inflation Expectations: SPF participants revised their inflation expectations down to 1.9%, from 2.0% in the previous SPF round. This downward adjustment is attributed to:
  • A smaller-than-expected impact of the German VAT increase.
  • Stronger pass-through from lower energy prices.
  • More favorable food price developments due to mild weather.
• 2008 Inflation Expectations: The average inflation expectation for 2008 remained at 1.9%, consistent with Consensus Economics and Euro Zone Barometer, and within the range of ECB staff projections (1.4–2.6%).
• Probability Distribution: The probability distribution for 2007 inflation shifted towards lower outcomes compared to Q1 2007. For 2008, the central interval remained 1.5%–1.9%, but there was a notable increase in the 2.0%–2.4% range.
• Upside and Downside Risks: Experts identified upside risks from potential oil price rebounds and wage acceleration, while downside risks were linked to a stronger euro.

Longer-Term Inflation Expectations

• Five-Year Inflation Expectations: Longer-term inflation expectations (five years ahead) remained at 1.9%, unchanged for the 22nd consecutive survey round.
• Probability Distribution: The average probability distribution for longer-term inflation expectations remained largely unchanged, with the majority of responses falling in the 1.5%–1.9% range. The probability of inflation being at or above 2% increased slightly to 46%.
• Break-Even Inflation Rate: The ten-year break-even inflation rate from French government inflation-linked bonds slightly increased, while the five-year forward break-even rate remained stable. These rates are not direct measures of inflation expectations but may include risk premia.

Real GDP Growth Expectations

• 2007 GDP Growth: Expectations for real GDP growth were revised upwards by 0.4 percentage points, reaching 2.5%, reflecting improved outlooks for both domestic and external demand.
• 2008 GDP Growth: Expectations for 2008 GDP growth were also revised up by 0.2 percentage points, to 2.3%.
• Risks: Risks to the forecasts were assessed as more on the downside, primarily due to oil price volatility, the strength of the euro, and global imbalances.
• Longer-Term Growth: Longer-term growth expectations (for 2011) remained unchanged at 2.1%. Forecasters indicated that these prospects depend on:
  • Structural labor market reforms.
  • Migration flows.
  • Improved productivity.

Unemployment Rate Expectations

• 2007 Unemployment Rate: Expectations were revised down to 7.2%, from 7.5% in the previous SPF round.
• 2008 Unemployment Rate: Expectations were revised down to 6.9%, indicating a continued improvement in the labor market.
• Longer-Term Unemployment Rate: Expectations for 2011 unemployment rate were revised down to 6.7%, down by 0.2 percentage points.
• Risks: The balance of risks was assessed to be on the upside, with forecasters emphasizing that the long-term decline in unemployment depends on further labor market reforms.

Key Comparisons

• SPF inflation expectations for 2007 were 0.1 percentage point higher than those from Consensus Economics and Euro Zone Barometer, but within the range of ECB staff projections.
• SPF GDP growth expectations for 2007 and 2008 were slightly higher than those from Consensus Economics and Euro Zone Barometer, but within ECB staff projections.
• SPF unemployment rate expectations for 2007 and 2008 were lower than those from Consensus Economics and Euro Zone Barometer.

Conclusion

The SPF results for Q2 2007 reflect a generally downward trend in inflation expectations for 2007, with a stable outlook for 2008. Real GDP growth expectations were revised upwards, while unemployment rate expectations continued to decline. Longer-term inflation and growth expectations remained stable, with a focus on structural reforms and external factors influencing future outcomes.