2009年-ECB欧洲央行_Results_of_the_ECB_Survey_of_Professional_Forecasters_for_the_third_quarter_of_2009_5页_315kb

ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters - Third Quarter of 2009

Core Content

The ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) for the third quarter of 2009 provides insights into the expectations of professional forecasters regarding inflation, real GDP growth, and unemployment in the euro area. The survey was conducted between 15 and 20 July 2009, with 54 responses received. The SPF collects expectations from experts affiliated with financial or non-financial institutions in the EU.

Inflation Expectations

• 2009: Inflation expectations were revised downwards by 0.1 percentage point to 0.4% from the previous round (Q2 2009: 0.5%).
• 2010: Revised downwards by 0.2 percentage point to 1.1% (Q2 2009: 1.3%).
• 2011: Expected to rise to 1.6%.
• Longer-term (2014): Revised upwards slightly to 1.98% from 1.93% in the previous round.
• Key Factors: Forecasters cited strong base effects from low oil and commodity prices in the previous quarters as the main reason for the downward revision. They expect inflation to reach its lowest point in the third quarter of 2009 and then gradually increase, remaining below 2.0%.
• Probability Distribution: The probability of inflation being negative in 2009 and 2010 is low (15% and 7% respectively). The balance of risks is on the downside, with more respondents having point estimates above the mean than below.

Real GDP Growth Expectations

• 2009: Revised downwards by 1.1 percentage points to -4.5% (Q2 2009: -3.4%).
• 2010: Revised upwards by 0.1 percentage point to 0.3% (Q2 2009: 0.2%).
• 2011: Expected to grow by 1.5%.
• Longer-term (2014): Remains at 1.9%, slightly below Consensus Economics and Euro Zone Barometer forecasts.
• Key Factors: Weak domestic and external demand, financial market tensions, and tight financing conditions are cited as the main challenges for GDP growth. A moderate recovery is expected in 2010, with some respondents anticipating a return to full potential by 2011.
• Probability Distribution: The probability of negative real GDP growth in 2010 is 32%, down from 37% in the previous round. The distribution for 2010 remains flat, concentrated between 0.0% and 0.9%.

Unemployment Rate Expectations

• 2009: Revised upwards by 0.4 percentage points to 9.7% (Q2 2009: 9.3%).
• 2010: Expected to rise to 10.9%.
• 2011: Projected to ease slightly to 10.6%.
• Longer-term: Revised upwards by 0.1 percentage point to 8.5%.
• Key Factors: Increasing unemployment is expected to negatively impact wages and consumer spending. Weak demand, underutilised capacity, and low firm pricing power are seen as major factors limiting economic recovery.

Comparison with Other Indicators

• SPF expectations for inflation and GDP growth align broadly with the Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections, Consensus Economics, and Euro Zone Barometer forecasts for 2009 and 2010.
• Longer-term inflation expectations (for 2014) are slightly below those of the Euro Zone Barometer (2.1%) but in line with Consensus Economics (2.0%).
• Break-even inflation rates, a financial market indicator, have shown erratic behavior since September 2008, possibly due to financial market turbulence and investor risk aversion.

Summary of Key Points

• Inflation: Expected to remain below 2.0% in 2009 and 2010, with a slight increase to 1.6% in 2011. Longer-term expectations have slightly increased.
• GDP Growth: Expected to contract by 4.5% in 2009, with a moderate recovery in 2010 and growth in 2011. Uncertainty remains high.
• Unemployment: Projected to rise to 10.9% in 2010 and ease slightly to 10.6% in 2011, with longer-term expectations at 8.5%.
• Risk Balance: Overall, the balance of risks is on the downside for both inflation and GDP growth, with a higher probability of negative outcomes in 2009 and 2010.