2013年-ECB欧洲央行_Results_of_the_ECB_survey_of_professional_forecasters_for_the_second_quarter_of_2013_5页_275kb

ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters - Q2 2013 Results Summary

Core Content Overview

The ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) for the second quarter of 2013 provides insights into inflation, real GDP growth, and unemployment expectations for the euro area. The survey received 53 responses and includes comparisons with previous forecasts, ECB staff projections, and other economic indicators such as Consensus Economics and the Euro Zone Barometer.

Key Inflation Expectations

• Short-term inflation expectations for 2013, 2014, and 2015 are 1.7%, 1.6%, and 1.8% respectively.
• These expectations show slight downward revisions compared to the previous survey round:
  • 2013: down by 0.1 percentage point
  • 2014: down by 0.2 percentage point
  • 2015: down by 0.1 percentage point
• The longer-term inflation expectation for 2017 remains unchanged at 2.0%.
• The median and mode of the point forecasts for 2017 are also stable at 2.0%.
• The percentage share of respondents providing a 2.0% forecast is 36%, while those providing a 1.9% forecast increased from 23% to 27%.
• The aggregate probability distribution for 2013 and 2014 inflation has shifted slightly to lower outcomes, with the probability of inflation being at or above 2.0% remaining at 50%.
• The standard deviation of the point forecasts for longer-term inflation remains 0.2 percentage points, consistent with the range since 2010.
• Uncertainty surrounding longer-term inflation expectations has declined marginally, but remains high.

Real GDP Growth Expectations

• Real GDP growth expectations for 2013 and 2014 were revised downward:
  • 2013: from 0.0% to -0.4%
  • 2014: from 1.1% to 1.0%
• 2015 expectations remain unchanged at 1.6%.
• These expectations are within the ECB staff projections for 2013 and 2014, and broadly in line with those of Consensus Economics and the Euro Zone Barometer.
• The aggregate probability distribution for 2013 GDP growth shifted to lower outcomes, with a 39% probability for the interval between -0.5% and -0.1%.
• For 2014, the highest probability (27%) is assigned to the interval between 1.0% and 1.4%.
• The balance of risks for GDP growth is tilted to the downside, due to lower foreign demand and reduced market confidence.
• Upside risks include increased world trade, higher economic sentiment, and earlier structural reforms.
• Longer-term GDP growth expectations for 2017 remain stable at 1.8%, with slightly thinner tails in the probability distribution compared to the previous survey round.

Unemployment Rate Expectations

• The average unemployment rate for 2013, 2014, and 2015 is 12.3%, 12.2%, and 11.6% respectively.
• These forecasts show upward revisions compared to the previous survey round, with the increase becoming more pronounced over the forecast horizon.
• Respondents attributed the upward revisions to:
  • Weaker economic activity than previously expected
  • Slow implementation of structural labour market reforms in crisis countries
  • Bigger flows from inactivity into the workforce, reflecting unfavourable household disposable income developments
• SPF forecasts for 2013–2015 are slightly higher than those of Consensus Economics and the Euro Zone Barometer.
• Longer-term unemployment expectations for 2017 are slightly higher at 9.6%, following a 0.5 percentage point increase in the previous survey round.
• The aggregate probability distribution for unemployment has shifted further towards higher outcomes.

Conditioning Assumptions

• The assumptions for the ECB's main refinancing rate and the USD/EUR exchange rate remain unchanged.
• The main refinancing rate is expected to stay at around 0.7% until the first quarter of 2014, then rise to 1.1% in 2015.
• The USD/EUR exchange rate is expected to remain stable at 1.30 for the second quarter of 2013 and up to 2015.
• Oil prices are expected to rise from USD 105 per barrel in Q2 2013 to USD 110.7 per barrel in 2015.
• Compensation per employee growth is expected to be:
  • 1.7% in 2013
  • 1.8% in 2014
  • 2.1% in 2015
  • 2.4% in 2017
• These figures are slightly lower than those in the previous survey round.

Main Views and Insights

• Inflation is expected to remain moderately low in the short term, with a stable longer-term outlook at 2.0%.
• Real GDP growth is weaker than previously anticipated, especially for 2013, due to lower economic activity and external demand.
• Unemployment is expected to remain high but show a gradual decline over the forecast horizon.
• Uncertainty surrounding inflation and GDP growth remains elevated, but there is some reduction in uncertainty for longer-term inflation.
• Structural reforms and economic sentiment are seen as key factors influencing future growth and unemployment trends.