2009年-ECB欧洲央行_Results_of_the_ECB_Survey_of_Professional_Forecasters_for_the_first_quarter_of_2009_5页_258kb

ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters - First Quarter of 2009

Core Content

The ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) for the first quarter of 2009 provides insights into the expectations of professional forecasters regarding inflation, real GDP growth, and the unemployment rate in the euro area.

Inflation Expectations

• 2009 and 2010 Inflation Expectations:

  • Inflation expectations for 2009 and 2010 have been significantly revised downwards compared to the previous survey in October 2008.
  • The revised expectations are 0.9% for 2009 and 1.6% for 2010.
  • The largest downward revision was for 2009, amounting to 1.3 percentage points.
  • The SPF expectations are below or at the lower end of the Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections from December 2008 and slightly below those of Consensus Economics and the Euro Zone Barometer from January 2009.

• Probability Distribution:

  • The probability distribution for inflation in 2009 and 2010 shifted towards lower outcomes.
  • Only a small probability is associated with inflation exceeding 2% (about 3% for 2009 and 26% for 2010).
  • The balance of risks to the forecasts is assessed to be on the downside, although some respondents note that commodity prices could pose an upward risk in the second half of 2009 and 2010.

• Longer-Term Inflation Expectations:

  • Longer-term inflation expectations (for 2013) were revised slightly downwards from 1.99% to 1.94%.
  • The probability of inflation standing at 2% or above in the next five years decreased to 49%.
  • Financial market-based indicators of inflation expectations have become more erratic since September 2008, possibly due to increased risk aversion among investors.

Real GDP Growth Expectations

• 2009 and 2010 Growth Expectations:

  • SPF respondents revised their real GDP growth expectations for 2009 downwards to an unprecedented level, expecting a -1.7% contraction.
  • For 2010, the revision was -0.8 percentage points, resulting in a forecast of 0.6% growth.
  • Since July 2008, the cumulative downward revision for the 2009-2010 period has been 4 percentage points.

• Probability Distribution:

  • The aggregate probability distribution for 2009 has been revised substantially downwards, with the largest probability associated with outcomes in the open-ended interval of less than -1%.
  • For 2010, the probability distribution shifted towards lower outcomes, with a 50% probability that growth will be in the range of 0.0% to 1.0%.
  • The estimated mean of the probability distribution for 2010 is 0.5%, slightly below the average of the reported point estimates (0.6%).
  • There is significant uncertainty regarding the timing and sources of a recovery, with many forecasters noting that the downturn is widespread and affecting all parts of the economy.

• Recovery Expectations:

  • Approximately 50% of respondents expect the recovery to start in the second half of 2009, with some anticipating it towards the end of 2009.
  • About 33% expect the recovery to begin in the first half of 2010, and the rest anticipate it in the second half of 2010 or later.

• Longer-Term Growth Expectations:

  • Longer-term growth expectations (for 2013) remain unchanged at 2.0%.
  • The balance of risks is still assessed to be on the downside, with a higher probability assigned to growth between 1.5% to 1.9% than between 2.0% to 2.4%.

Unemployment Rate Expectations

• Unemployment Expectations:

  • SPF respondents revised their unemployment rate expectations substantially upwards for all horizons.
  • For 2009, the expected unemployment rate is 8.7%, up by 0.7 percentage points from the previous survey.
  • For 2010, the expected unemployment rate is 9.4%, up by 1.3 percentage points.
  • Longer-term unemployment expectations were revised upwards to 7.8%, an increase of 0.7 percentage points.

• Labour Market Hysteresis:

  • The upward revision in unemployment expectations suggests a prolonged period of high unemployment.
  • Forecasters indicate that the unemployment rate is expected to return to 7.8% only after five years.
  • Structural reforms in the labour market have provided some flexibility, preventing a more severe and prolonged increase in unemployment.
  • A number of forecasters note that the decline in unemployment after 2010 depends on the continuation and acceleration of labour market reforms.

Summary of Key Findings

• Inflation:

  • Expectations for 2009 and 2010 have dropped significantly, driven by falling commodity prices and weaker economic activity.
  • Longer-term inflation expectations have also slightly declined.

• GDP Growth:

  • Real GDP growth is expected to contract in 2009 and grow modestly in 2010.
  • There is considerable uncertainty about the timing and nature of recovery.

• Unemployment:

  • Unemployment is expected to rise across all horizons, reflecting the depth and breadth of the economic downturn.
  • Labour market hysteresis is perceived, with a long-term expectation of high unemployment.

Comparison with Other Indicators

• SPF forecasts for 2009 inflation and GDP growth are significantly lower than those from Consensus Economics and the Euro Zone Barometer.
• The SPF unemployment forecasts are higher than previous estimates, highlighting the severity of the downturn.