2008年-ECB欧洲央行_Results_of_the_ECB_Survey_of_Professional_Forecasters_for_the_second_quarter_of_2008_4页_273kb

Box 6: ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters – Q2 2008 Summary

Core Content

The ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) for the second quarter of 2008 provides insights into the expectations of euro area inflation, GDP growth, and unemployment from financial and non-financial experts. The survey was conducted between 16 and 18 April 2008, and the results reflect a range of subjective views due to the diverse panel of participants.

Inflation Expectations

• 2008 Inflation: SPF participants' inflation expectations increased to 3.0%, up by 0.5 percentage points from the previous SPF round (Q1 2008).
• 2009 Inflation: Expected inflation for 2009 was revised upwards to 2.2%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points.
• Comparison with Projections:
  • SPF expectations are within the ECB staff macroeconomic projections range (2.6–3.2% for 2008, 1.5–2.7% for 2009).
  • They are 0.1 percentage point higher than those from Consensus Economics and Euro Zone Barometer.
• Probability Distribution:
  • For 2008, the most likely inflation range is 3.0%–3.4% (46%) and 2.5%–2.9% (35%).
  • For 2009, the most likely range is 2.0%–2.4% (44%), with a still high probability (26%) of inflation being in the 1.5%–1.9% range.
• Upside and Downside Risks:
  • Upside risks include further increases in oil, food, and commodity prices, as well as higher nominal wage growth.
  • Downside risks include a slowdown in the euro area economy, less dynamic global developments, and a further appreciation of the euro.

Real GDP Growth Expectations

• 2008 GDP Growth: Revised downwards to 1.6%, compared to 1.8% in the previous SPF round.
• 2009 GDP Growth: Revised downwards to 1.6%, down by 0.4 percentage points from the previous round.
• Comparison with Projections:
  • SPF expectations are within the ECB staff macroeconomic projections range for 2008 and 2009.
  • They are 0.1 percentage point higher than the Euro Zone Barometer for 2008 and 0.1 percentage point lower for 2009.
• Risks:
  • Mainly downside risks related to higher oil prices, financial market uncertainty, and a disorderly unwinding of global imbalances, which could affect the euro's exchange rate.
• Longer-Term Growth Expectations:
  • Remain at 2.1% for 2012.
  • Forecasters believe long-term growth depends on structural reforms in the labour market and social security systems, as well as demographic factors and migration flows.

Unemployment Rate Expectations

• 2008 Unemployment Rate: Expected to remain at 7.1%, no change from the previous SPF round.
• 2009 Unemployment Rate: Revised upwards to 7.1%, an increase of 0.1 percentage point from the previous round.
• Comparison with Other Indicators:
  • SPF expectations align with Consensus Economics for 2008 and 2009, and with the Euro Zone Barometer for 2009.
• Longer-Term Unemployment Rate:
  • Revised downwards to 6.6% for 2012.
  • Respondents emphasize that the decline in unemployment over the long term is mainly driven by further and deeper labour market reforms.

Longer-Term Inflation Expectations

• Five-Year Inflation Expectations: Slightly decreased from 1.950% to 1.948%, but rounded to 1.9%.
• Comparison with Other Surveys:
  • SPF expectations for 2012 are slightly below those from the Euro Zone Barometer (2011) and Consensus Economics (2014–2018).
• Probability of Inflation ≥ 2%:
  • Increased slightly to 50%, compared to 49% in the previous round.
• Break-Even Inflation Rates:
  • These market-based indicators are broadly in line with SPF expectations, though they may include risk premia such as inflation uncertainty and liquidity premia.

Key Insights

• The SPF results reflect increased inflation expectations for 2008 and 2009 due to rising oil and food prices and higher wage demands.
• Real GDP growth expectations have declined for both 2008 and 2009, influenced by global economic slowdown in the US and UK.
• Unemployment is expected to remain stable in 2008 and slightly increase in 2009, but long-term expectations are lower due to labour market reforms.
• Longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable, with a slight decline and a broad consensus on the likely range.
• The SPF provides a comprehensive view of economic expectations, complementing other indicators like the Euro Zone Barometer and Consensus Economics.