2014年-ECB欧洲央行_Results_of_the_ECB_Survey_of_Professional_Forecasters_for_the_second_quarter_of_2014_6页_288kb

ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters - Q2 2014 Summary

Core Content

The ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) for the second quarter of 2014 provides updated macroeconomic expectations for the euro area, including inflation, real GDP growth, and unemployment. The survey collected responses from 55 professional forecasters affiliated with financial or non-financial institutions in the EU.

Key Findings

Inflation Expectations

• Short-term inflation expectations (2014-2016):
  The average point forecasts for inflation are 0.9% (2014), 1.3% (2015), and 1.5% (2016), representing a further downward revision from the previous survey round by 0.1-0.2 percentage points for each year.

• Longer-term inflation expectations (2018):
  The average point forecast for inflation in 2018 has slightly decreased by 0.03 percentage points to 1.84%, while the median remains at 1.9%. The aggregate probability distribution has shifted slightly to lower outcomes, with the estimated mean at 1.78%.

• Probability Distribution:

  • 2014: 43% probability of inflation between 0.5% and 0.9%.
  • 2015: 34% probability of inflation between 1.0% and 1.4%.
  • 2016: 34% probability of inflation between 1.5% and 1.9%.
  • Negative inflation: Very low, at 1.2% for 2018.

• Risks:
  Downside risks to inflation are attributed to domestic factors (economic developments, labor market conditions) and external factors (commodity prices, exchange rates). However, some of these factors are also seen as potential upside risks.

Real GDP Growth Expectations

• Short-term growth expectations (2014-2016):
  The average point forecasts for real GDP growth are 1.1% (2014), 1.5% (2015), and 1.7% (2016), with a slight increase in 2014 and no change in 2015 and 2016.

• Longer-term growth expectations (2018):
  The average point forecast for 2018 decreased by 0.1 percentage point to 1.7%, slightly below the ECB staff projections and Consensus Economics, but still higher than the Euro Zone Barometer forecast.

• Probability Distribution:

  • 2014: Shifted towards higher outcomes, with 44% probability in the range 1.0%–1.4%.
  • 2015 and 2016: Probability distributions remained broadly unchanged.

• Risks:
  Risks are tilted to the downside, linked to a modest economic recovery and lack of structural reforms. Upside risks include stronger investor and consumer confidence and earlier effects from structural reforms.

Unemployment Rate Expectations

• Short-term unemployment expectations (2014-2016):
  The average point forecasts for the unemployment rate are 11.8% (2014), 11.5% (2015), and 11.0% (2016), representing downward revisions of 0.3% for 2014 and 0.2% for 2015 and 2016.

• Longer-term unemployment expectations (2018):
  The average point forecast for the unemployment rate in 2018 is 9.5%, a 0.1 percentage point decrease from the previous SPF round.

• Probability Distribution:
  The aggregate probability distribution has shifted towards lower outcomes, but 51% of respondents still expect unemployment to remain between 9.0% and 10.4%.

• Risks:
  Upside risks are associated with a more modest economic recovery and potential lack of structural reforms. Downside risks include stronger competitiveness from structural reforms in southern Europe, which could lead to higher unemployment.

Other Variables and Assumptions

• Oil Prices: Expected to remain at USD 107 per barrel until 2016.
• Euro-Dollar Exchange Rate: Expected to decrease from 1.37 in Q2 2014 to 1.31 in 2015 and 1.30 in 2016.
• Compensation per Employee Growth: Revised downwards to 1.4% (2014), 1.7% (2015), and 1.8% (2016), with a slight decrease to 2.1% for the five-year horizon.
• ECB Main Refinancing Rate: Expected to remain around 0.25% until the end of 2014, increase to 0.3% in 2015, and reach 0.7% in 2016.

Summary of Comparisons

• Inflation: SPF expectations are in line with ECB staff projections and Consensus Economics for 2014-2016, but slightly lower than the Euro Zone Barometer for 2016.
• GDP Growth: SPF expectations for 2014 are slightly lower than ECB staff projections, while for 2016 they are slightly higher.
• Unemployment: SPF expectations are more optimistic than ECB staff and other surveys for all periods, with a greater downward revision in 2014.

Conclusion

The SPF results for Q2 2014 show a continued downward trend in inflation expectations, a gradual increase in real GDP growth, and a decline in unemployment rates. The outlook for inflation remains slightly upward, but with increased downside risks. The survey also highlights the role of structural reforms, monetary policy, and external factors in shaping macroeconomic expectations.