2011年-ECB欧洲央行_Results_of_the_ECB_Survey_of_Professional_Forecasters_for_the_second_quarter_of_2011_5页_312kb

报告摘要

ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters - Q2 2011 Summary

Core Content

The ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) for the second quarter of 2011 provides insights into the expectations of professional forecasters regarding inflation, real GDP growth, and unemployment in the euro area. The survey received 55 responses from experts affiliated with financial or non-financial institutions in the EU.

Inflation Expectations

2011: Inflation is expected to be at 2.5%, up by 0.6 percentage points from the previous SPF round.
2012: Inflation is expected to be at 1.9%, up by 0.1 percentage points from the previous SPF round.
Reason for Revision: The upward revision for 2011 is mainly attributed to the sharp rise in commodity prices, especially energy prices.
Short-term Risks: There are upside risks due to geopolitical tensions in Northern Africa and the Middle East affecting oil prices.
Probability Distribution: For 2011, the highest probability (41%) is assigned to the range 2.5%–2.9%, while the interval 2.0%–2.4% has a 32% probability. The balance of risks is on the downside for 2011 and broadly balanced for 2012.

Real GDP Growth Expectations

2011: Real GDP growth is expected to be 1.7%, up by 0.1 percentage point from the previous SPF round.
2012: Real GDP growth is expected to remain at 1.7%.
Comparison: These expectations align with the March 2011 ECB staff macroeconomic projections and match the latest Consensus Economics and Euro Zone Barometer forecasts.
Probability Distribution: The distribution for 2011 has shifted towards higher outcomes, with a 44% probability assigned to the range 1.5%–1.9%, while the lower range 1.0%–1.4% has a 20% probability. For 2012, the distribution has marginally shifted downwards, but remains concentrated in the 1.5%–1.9% range with a 37% probability.
Key Risks: Downside risks include fiscal tightening in distressed euro area countries, rising energy prices affecting households, and deceleration in global growth, particularly in emerging economies.

Unemployment Rate Expectations

2011: Unemployment rate is expected to be 9.8%, down by 0.1 percentage point from the previous SPF round.
2012: Unemployment rate is expected to be 9.5%, also down by 0.1 percentage point.
Longer-term (2015): Unemployment rate is expected to be 8.2%, down by 0.1 percentage point from the previous SPF round.
Balance of Risks: For 2011, the balance of risks is on the downside, while for 2012, it is on the upside.

Longer-term Inflation Expectations

2015: Longer-term inflation expectations remain unchanged at 2.0% (from 1.95% in the previous SPF round).
Median Forecast: The median forecast is also unchanged at 2.0%.
Disagreement: The standard deviation of point forecasts has slightly decreased, indicating lower disagreement among forecasters.
Probability Distribution: The probability of inflation being 2.0% or above has increased to 50%, up from 48% in the previous round.
Uncertainty: The standard deviation of the aggregate probability distribution has reached an all-time high since the survey began in 1999, reflecting increased uncertainty.

Other Variables and Assumptions

Oil Prices: Expected to be around USD 115 per barrel in Q2 2011, then slightly decrease to USD 110 per barrel in 2012.
Wage Growth: Expected to be 1.8% in 2011, rising gradually to 2.4% in 2015.
Euro/Dollar Exchange Rate: Expected to reach 1.39 in Q2 2011, then slightly depreciate to 1.37 in Q1 2012.
ECB Main Refinancing Rate: Expected to increase gradually from 1.3% in Q2 2011 to 1.9% in Q1 2012, and then to 2.2% on average in 2012.

Key Comparisons

The SPF expectations for 2011 and 2012 are slightly higher than those from Consensus Economics and the Euro Zone Barometer.
Market-based measures of inflation expectations, such as break-even inflation rates, are somewhat higher than SPF expectations, but include an inflation risk premium and are more volatile due to bond market liquidity conditions.

Conclusion

The SPF Q2 2011 results show a moderate upward revision in inflation expectations for 2011, driven by rising commodity prices, and a slight decrease in unemployment rate expectations for both 2011 and 2012. Real GDP growth expectations have also increased slightly for 2011, with some downside risks noted. The longer-term inflation expectations remain stable, but the aggregate uncertainty has reached an all-time high, indicating increased volatility in market-based measures.

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