2012年-ECB欧洲央行_Results_of_the_ECB_survey_of_professional_forecasters_for_the_second_quarter_of_2012_5页_319kb

ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters - Q2 2012 Summary

Core Content

The ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) for the second quarter of 2012 provides updated macroeconomic expectations for the euro area. The survey was conducted between 17 and 19 April 2012 and received 56 responses. The results highlight changes in inflation and real GDP growth expectations, as well as an upward revision in unemployment rate forecasts.

Key Findings

Inflation Expectations

• Shorter-term inflation expectations (2012 and 2013):

  • The average point forecasts for 2012 and 2013 are 2.3% and 1.8%, respectively.
  • These represent upward revisions of 0.4 percentage points for 2012 and 0.1 percentage points for 2013.
  • The main reasons for the upward revision are increased energy and commodity prices, as well as higher indirect taxes and administered prices in some countries.
  • The aggregate probability distribution for 2012 has shifted towards higher outcomes, with a 40% probability of inflation between 2.0% and 2.4%, and a 29% probability of inflation between 2.5% and 2.9%.
  • For 2013, the highest probability (34%) is still assigned to the 1.5% to 1.9% range, but the second highest probability (24%) is now for the 2.0% to 2.4% interval.
  • The probability of inflation being 2% or above increased from 44% to 77% for 2012, and from 32% to 37% for 2013.

• Longer-term inflation expectations (2016):

  • The average point forecast remains at 2.0%.
  • At two decimal places, expectations are 1.99%, up from 1.98% in the previous survey.
  • The median and mode of the point forecasts are unchanged at 2.0%.
  • The share of respondents providing a point forecast of 2.0% is stable at 39%.
  • The aggregate probability distribution has shifted slightly towards higher outcomes, with the probability of inflation being at or above 2.0% increasing from 46% to 49%.
  • Disagreement and uncertainty about longer-term inflation expectations increased, with the standard deviation of point forecasts rising to 0.3 percentage points (from 0.2 percentage points), and the standard deviation of the aggregate probability distribution reaching its highest level on record.

Real GDP Growth Expectations

• Real GDP growth for 2012 and 2013:
  • The average forecasts are -0.2% for 2012 and 1.0% for 2013, representing a 0.1 percentage point downward revision for both years.
  • These expectations are within the ECB staff macroeconomic projections from March 2012 and slightly higher than the forecasts from Consensus Economics and the Euro Zone Barometer in April 2012.
  • The aggregate probability distribution for 2012 has shifted towards lower outcomes, with the highest probability (37%) now assigned to the -0.5% to -0.1% interval, compared to 29% in the previous survey.
  • For 2013, the highest probability (27%) is assigned to the 1.5% to 1.9% interval.
  • The main downside risks include escalation of the sovereign debt crisis, negative feedback loops between fiscal consolidation and growth, further oil price increases, and weaker growth in emerging market economies.

Unemployment Rate Expectations

• Unemployment rate for 2012 and 2013:
  • The average forecasts are 11.0% for 2012 and 10.9% for 2013, representing upward revisions of 0.4 and 0.3 percentage points, respectively.
  • This revision is partly due to upward revisions in the latest unemployment data (from November 2011).
  • Respondents attributed the increase in unemployment expectations to slowdown in economic activity.
  • The longer-term unemployment rate expectations (2016) have increased to 8.9%.
  • The main upside risk to the unemployment outlook is the persistence of the crisis, especially in southern Europe, while downside risks are associated with the further implementation and success of structural reforms.

Other Variables and Assumptions

• Oil prices: Expected to be around USD 119 per barrel in 2012, with a slight decrease in 2013.
• EUR/USD exchange rate: Expected to be around 1.30 in 2012, with a slight appreciation at the end of the year.
• ECB's main refinancing rate: Expected to average 0.9% in 2012 and stand at 1.0% in 2013.
• Average annual growth in compensation per employee: Remained unchanged at around 2.1% for both 2012 and 2013.