20140508-Maybank_KERPL-Regional_Oil___Gas_11页_586kb
报告摘要
Regional Oil & Gas Summary - 08 May 2014
Core Content Overview
The document provides a summary of oil and gas market movements and company performance in Asia, along with valuation comparisons and analyst insights. It includes price changes for key commodities, news headlines, and reports from Maybank Kim Eng and Bloomberg.
Key Market Movements
- Brent Crude Oil increased by 1.0% on the day, with a closing price of $108.13.
- WTI Crude Oil rose by 1.3%, closing at $100.77.
- Gold fell by 1.4%, closing at $1,289.88.
- LNG Northeast Asia CFR declined by 4.5%, with a closing price of $13.85.
News Headlines Summary
China
- CNPC plans to issue a dollar bond as borrowing costs reach an 11-month low.
- Vietnam warns CNOOC to remove a rig from the South China Sea.
Malaysia
- MMHE reported a 1Q14 profit of MYR34.1m, down from MYR56.8m in 1Q13, due to projects reaching later stages of their lifecycles.
- Petronas Gas had a routine quarter, with net profit at 25% of full year forecasts.
India
- India's amines prices are expected to remain weak due to the ongoing election.
- Cairn India received a BUY rating, with a target price of $443.00.
Japan
- Toyo was awarded a contract to build an ammonia plant for Petrobras, expected to start operations in 1H17.
Thailand
- PTT made a tender offer to procure 44kt of LPG for delivery between 3-7 June.
- PTT E&P and PTTGC received BUY ratings.
- Thai Oil PCL received a SELL rating.
Philippines
- Petron Corp and Phoenix Petroleum Philippines received BUY ratings.
Other Countries
- Cedigaz reported that global gas demand growth slowed to 1.3% in 2013, below the 2.8% average over the past decade.
- Mongolia's Petro Matad shares dropped 25% due to disappointing 2D data.
Analyst Insights
- Howard Wong (HK/CHINA), Jigar Shah (INDIA), Pandu Anugrah (INDONESIA), Liaw Thong Jung (MALAYSIA), Laura Dy-Liacco (PHILIPPINES), Yeah Chee Keong (SINGAPORE), Sutthichai Kumworachai (THAILAND), Le Nguyen Nhat Chuyen (VIETNAM), and Truong Quang Binh (VIETNAM) are the analysts covering the region.
Our Latest Reports
Petronas Gas
- Rating: HOLD
- Target Price: MYR23.50
- Summary: A largely routine quarter. 2Q14 will reflect the new GPTA, which is more stable and marginally more accretive than the old one.
Sembcorp Marine
- Rating: HOLD
- Target Price: SGD4.36
- Summary: Another disappointing quarter. Operating margin remained flat due to no increase in ship repair volume. Benefits from the new Tuas yard may take longer than expected to materialize.
FPSO and Drilling Rigs Outlook
- Rating: OVERWEIGHT
- Summary: The FPSO and jack-up (JU) rig markets remain robust, but deepwater rig rates are experiencing short-term weakness. Local content and cost management are growing trends. Top picks include Bumi Armada, Yinson, UMWOG, Perisai, and PV Drilling.
Vard Holdings
- Rating: BUY
- Target Price: SGD1.07
- Summary: 1Q14 results in line with expectations. EBITDA margin improved for the third consecutive quarter to 6.4%. Selldown is unwarranted. Maintain BUY and TP of SGD1.07.
Valuation Comparison
Asia Oil & Gas
| Company | Ticker | KE Rating | Price 07-May | Target Price | Mkt Cap USD | 90D T/O USDm | P/E 2013 | P/E 2014E | EV/EBITDA 2013 | EV/EBITDA 2014E | RoE % | P/B (X) | Yield % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PetroChina - H | 857 HK | NR | 8.78 | NR | 218.2 | 99.2 | 9.8 | 9.8 | 6.0 | 5.2 | 11.8 | 1.1 | 4.6 |
| Sinopec - H | 386 HK | NR | 6.64 | NR | 94.2 | 120.0 | 9.2 | 8.5 | 5.2 | 4.7 | 12.2 | 1.1 | 4.6 |
| CNOOC LTD | 883 HK | NR | 12.50 | NR | 72.0 | 109.4 | 7.9 | 7.9 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 17.3 | 1.3 | 4.5 |
| ONGC | ONGC IN | NR | 335.15 | NR | 47.8 | 23.1 | 11.8 | 10.8 | 6.5 | 4.9 | 16.8 | 1.9 | 2.8 |
| Reliance Industries | RIL IN | NR | 960.85 | NR | 51.8 | 56.1 | 13.6 | 11.6 | 11.2 | 9.0 | 11.9 | 1.5 | 0.9 |
| Cairn India | CAIR IN | BUY | 334.90 | 443.00 | 10.7 | 14.8 | 5.3 | 4.7 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 25.1 | 1.3 | 3.4 |
| BPCL | BPCL IN | NR | 472.35 | NR | 5.7 | 11.7 | 18.2 | 16.3 | 7.5 | 8.8 | 11.5 | 2.0 | 2.3 |
| HPCL | HPCL IN | NR | 347.70 | NR | 2.0 | 7.8 | 23.5 | 12.8 | 12.9 | 10.8 | 3.7 | 0.9 | 2.4 |
Asia Oil Service
| Company | Ticker | KE Rating | Price 07-May | Target Price | Mkt Cap USD | 90D T/O USDm | P/E 2013 | P/E 2014E | EV/EBITDA 2013 | EV/EBITDA 2014E | RoE % | P/B (X) | Yield % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bumi Armada | BAB MK | BUY | 3.99 | 5.00 | 3.6 | 2.8 | 27.1 | 24.8 | 11.1 | 13.4 | 10.6 | 2.7 | 0.8 |
| Yinson | YNS MK | BUY | 7.90 | 10.10 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 45.7 | 35.9 | 44.6 | 15.1 | 15.4 | 5.6 | 0.3 |
| UMW O&G | UMWOG MK | BUY | 4.16 | 5.15 | 2.8 | 4.3 | 36.5 | 32.0 | 18.8 | 19.7 | 12.4 | 3.2 | 0.2 |
| PTTGC | PTTGC TB | BUY | 70.00 | 87.00 | 9.7 | 21.7 | 9.5 | 8.5 | 7.2 | 7.4 | 14.4 | 1.3 | 2.3 |
| PTT PCL | PTT TB | BUY | 310.00 | 395.00 | 27.3 | 32.3 | 9.4 | 7.5 | 6.0 | 5.7 | 14.7 | 1.3 | 3.9 |
| Petron Corp | PCOR PM | BUY | 12.36 | 15.90 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 30.9 | 35.3 | 12.8 | 10.0 | 5.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| Phoenix Petroleum Philippines | PNX PM | BUY | 6.11 | 7.22 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 13.9 | 8.4 | 9.5 | 7.3 | 12.7 | 1.4 | 1.3 |
| Bumi Armada | BAB MK | BUY | 3.99 | 5.00 | 3.6 | 2.8 | 27.1 | 24.8 | 11.1 | 13.4 | 10.6 | 2.7 | 0.8 |
Summary of Key Trends
- Crude oil prices (Brent and WTI) rose slightly, while LNG prices fell significantly.
- MMHE and Petro Matad reported disappointing financial results.
- Vietnam and China had geopolitical tensions over South China Sea operations.
- India and Thailand showed signs of weak market sentiment due to elections and procurement activities.
- FPSO and drilling rig markets are robust, but deepwater rates are under pressure.
- Local content and cost management are becoming important trends.
- Vard Holdings is showing signs of recovery and is recommended as a BUY.
- Cairn India, PTTGC, and Petron Corp are among the top picks for BUY recommendations.
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