20140417-Maybank_KERPL-Regional_Oil___Gas_11页_586kb
报告摘要
Regional Oil & Gas Summary - 17 Apr 2014
Core Content Overview
This summary provides a snapshot of the oil and gas market trends and news highlights from the Asia-Pacific and global regions as of 16 April 2014, including price movements, major news headlines, and analyst reports.
Major Oil & Gas Price Movements
- Crude Oil (WTI): Last price: $103.86, Dollar Change: +$0.12, 1D: +0.1%, 1W: +0.5%, 1M: +1.1%
- Crude Oil (Brent): Last price: $109.60, Dollar Change: +$2.27, 1D: +2.1%, 1W: +3.6%, 1M: +1.3%
- Dubai Fateh Spot: Last price: $106.63, Dollar Change: +$2.56, 1D: +2.5%, 1W: +3.9%, 1M: +2.8%
- China Daqing Spot: Last price: $112.47, Dollar Change: +$2.94, 1D: +2.7%, 1W: +4.1%, 1M: +6.7%
- NYMEX Henry Hub: Last price: $4.53, Dollar Change: -$0.09, 1D: -1.9%, 1W: +1.2%, 1M: +2.9%
- LNG Japan Import CFR: Last price: $16.63, Dollar Change: --, 1D: --, 1W: --, 1M: -2.3%
- LNG Northeast Asia CFR: Last price: $14.95, Dollar Change: --, 1D: --, 1W: --, 1M: -9.1%
- Gold: Last price: $1,303.23, Dollar Change: -$15.19, 1D: -1.2%, 1W: +0.5%, 1M: -5.8%
- USD-JPY: 102.22, 1D: +0.6%, 1W: -0.9%, 1M: +0.8%
- USD-EUR: 0.72, 1D: +0.0%, 1W: -0.5%, 1M: +0.7%
- USD-CNY: 6.22, 1D: +0.2%, 1W: +0.1%, 1M: +1.2%
- S&P 500: 1,862.31, 1D: +46.62, 1D: +2.6%, 1W: +0.9%, 1M: +1.2%
- 30Y T-Bill: 3.44%, 1D: -0.04%, 1W: -1.1%, 1M: -3.2%
Key News Headlines
China & Russia
- Russia announced plans to increase oil cooperation with China, with Deputy Prime Minister Arkady Dvorkovich emphasizing the importance of collaboration.
- China's natural gas production for March rose to a two-year high of 11bcm, up 7.6% MoM, driven by demand for cleaner energy.
- Shanghai Sinopec Mitsui Elastomers increased EPDM production capacity by 75ktpa in Caoing, Shanghai, with the capacity expected to be online in May 2014.
Financial & Investment
- China's State Grid Corp. is considering issuing a dollar-denominated bond and will meet investors in the U.S. and Asia from 21 April.
- Japan's Astomos Energy signed contracts to purchase 5m tonnes of US LPG through 2014-2021, including 500ktpa over 2019-2021 and 400ktpa over 2014-2016.
- Subsea 7 and Hallin Marine began phase III of ONGC G1 deep-water project in India's Bay of Bengal.
- Petronas Dagangan Bhd allocated MYR700m for capital expenditure, with MYR500m for domestic operations and MYR200m for international subsidiaries.
- Technip and Heerema Marine Contractors secured a USD3.5b EPC contract for Total's Angola project, with Heerema installing pipelines and Technip handling pipelay.
Analyst Reports
Keppel Corp
- KE Rating: NR
- Price: SGD8.74
- Target Price: SGD12.48
- 1Q14 Results: PATMI dipped 5.1% YoY to SGD338.7m due to one-offs.
- O&M Operating Margin: Held steady at 14.2%.
- Net Orderbook: SGD14.4b, with SGD1.9b in new orders.
- Recommendation: Maintain BUY with SOTP-based target price.
Ezion Holdings
- KE Rating: NR
- Price: SGD1.94
- Target Price: SGD2.70
- New Contracts: Secured two USD78.7m liftboat contracts for deployment in 1H15.
- Share Placement: Placed 100m new shares at SGD1.94/share, a 9.6% discount to VWAP.
- Recommendation: Maintain BUY with adjusted target price.
Dialog Group
- KE Rating: NR
- Price: MYR3.58
- Target Price: MYR3.90
- Legal Dispute: Entered into arbitration with Tanjun Langsat Port over a 2008 fire incident.
- Recommendation: Maintain BUY with target price.
Valuation Comparison (Asia Oil & Gas)
| Company | Ticker | KE Rating | Price (16-Apr) | Target Price | Mkt Cap (USD) | 90D T/O (USD) | P/E (2013) | P/E (2014E) | EV/EBITDA (2013) | EV/EBITDA (2014E) | RoE (%) | P/B (X) | Yield (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PetroChina - H | 857 HK | NR | 8.74 | NR | 222.4 | 99.2 | 9.8 | 9.7 | 5.5 | 5.1 | 11.8 | 1.1 | 1.4 |
| Sinopec - H | 386 HK | NR | 6.92 | NR | 99.9 | 118.7 | 9.6 | 8.6 | 5.4 | 4.7 | 12.2 | 1.1 | 1.4 |
| CNOOC LTD | 883 HK | NR | 12.70 | NR | 73.1 | 123.4 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 3.7 | 3.6 | 17.3 | 1.3 | 4.5 |
| ONGC | ONGC IN | NR | 316.55 | NR | 44.9 | 21.0 | 11.2 | 10.2 | 6.1 | 4.7 | 16.8 | 1.8 | 3.0 |
| Reliance Industries | RIL IN | NR | 941.30 | NR | 50.5 | 53.3 | 13.3 | 13.2 | 10.4 | 9.8 | 11.9 | 1.5 | 1.0 |
| Cairn India | CAIR IN | Buy | 361.90 | 443.00 | 11.5 | 13.6 | 5.7 | 5.0 | 3.9 | 3.3 | 25.1 | 1.4 | 3.2 |
| BPCL | BPCL IN | NR | 436.35 | NR | 5.2 | 10.3 | 16.8 | 15.0 | 7.2 | 8.4 | 11.5 | 1.9 | 2.5 |
| HPLC | HPLC IN | NR | 302.85 | NR | 1.7 | 6.6 | 20.5 | 11.1 | 12.6 | 10.5 | 3.7 | 0.8 | 2.8 |
| Petronas Gas | PTG MK | Hold | 23.80 | 23.50 | 14.5 | 4.7 | 22.6 | 28.3 | 17.7 | 15.4 | 21.4 | 4.6 | 2.3 |
| PTT Global Chemical PCL | PTTGC TB | Buy | 71.00 | 87.00 | 9.9 | 26.4 | 9.6 | 8.6 | 7.3 | 7.6 | 14.4 | 1.3 | 2.3 |
| PTT PCL | PTT TB | Buy | 315.00 | 395.00 | 27.9 | 31.9 | 9.5 | 7.6 | 6.1 | 5.8 | 21.4 | 1.3 | 3.8 |
| Thai Oil PCL | TOP TB | Sell | 52.50 | 65.00 | 3.3 | 6.4 | 10.3 | 9.2 | 6.8 | 7.4 | 11.7 | 1.2 | 5.9 |
| Petron Corp | PCOR PM | Buy | 12.54 | 15.90 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 23.2 | 15.7 | 13.1 | 10.3 | 5.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| Phoenix Petroleum Philippines | PNX PM | Buy | 5.95 | 7.22 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 13.5 | 8.2 | 9.3 | 7.2 | 12.7 | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| S-Oil | 010950 KS | NR | 62,200 | NR | 6.7 | 14.3 | 25.0 | 13.3 | 12.6 | 8.8 | 5.2 | 1.3 | 2.1 |
| SK Innovation | 096770 KS | NR | 125,500 | NR | 11.2 | 37.0 | 49.5 | 9.6 | 21.3 | 7.9 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 2.5 |
| GS Holdings | 078930 KS | NR | 49,300 | NR | 4.4 | 10.5 | 18.2 | 8.3 | 17.0 | 8.7 | 5.4 | 1.0 | 2.7 |
| Formosa Petrochemical | 6505 TT | NR | 77.30 | NR | 24.4 | 13.9 | 27.4 | 25.9 | 18.7 | 15.8 | 12.0 | 3.1 | 3.3 |
| BPCB TB | BCP TB | Buy | 31.25 | 41.00 | 1.3 | 3.3 | 9.2 | 8.7 | 7.4 | 5.4 | 13.9 | 1.2 | 4.3 |
| IRPC PCL | LKOH RX | NR | 1,865.00 | NR | 44.1 | 88.0 | 5.6 | 3.9 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 10.3 | 0.5 | 6.6 |
| MOL Hunarian O&G | MOL HB | NR | 12,850.00 | NR | 6.0 | 4.8 | 52.6 | 9.1 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 3.8 |
| Petroleo Brasileiro | PETR3 BZ | NR | 15.08 | NR | 89.4 | 73.2 | 8.3 | 7.2 | 6.9 | 5.6 | 6.8 | 0.6 | 4.0 |
| Total | FP FP | NR | 49.00 | NR | 161.0 | 307.8 | 13.1 | 10.1 | 4.8 | 4.4 | 11.7 | 1.6 | 4.9 |
| Eni S.p.A. | ENI IM | NR | 18.69 | NR | 93.9 | 337.0 | 13.2 | 13.6 | 5.0 | 3.9 | 8.8 | 1.2 | 2.9 |
| Repsol S.A. | REP SM | NR | 18.79 | NR | 34.4 | 209.7 | 125.3 | 13.8 | 6.7 | 6.0 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 5.3 |
| Stateoil ASA | STL NO | NR | 174.30 | NR | 93.0 | 86.7 | 13.9 | 11.7 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 11.8 | 1.6 | 4.0 |
| OMV AG | OMV AV | NR | 31.70 | NR | 14.3 | 13.5 | 8.9 | 7.8 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 9.9 | 0.9 | 3.9 |
| Galp Energia, SGPS, S.A. | GALP PL | NR | 12.56 | NR | 14.4 | 22.9 | 54.6 | 31.8 | 14.0 | 11.2 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 2.3 |
| Asian Oil & Gas Average | - | - | - | - | - | - | 11.9 | 10.9 | 7.0 | 6.2 | 13.1 | 1.4 | 3.7 |
Valuation Comparison (Asia Oil Service)
| Company | Ticker | KE Rating | Price (16-Apr) | Target Price | Mkt Cap (USD) | 90D T/O (USD) | P/E (2013) | P/E (2014E) | EV/EBITDA (2013) | EV/EBITDA (2014E) | RoE (%) | P/B (X) | Yield (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anton Oilfield Services | 3337 HK | NR | 4.87 | NR | 1.4 | 7.7 | 21.7 | 18.4 | 10.9 | 8.9 | 18.0 | 3.6 | 1.4 |
| China Oilfield Services-H | 2883 HK | NR | 19.02 | NR | 13.1 | 33.1 | 10.1 | 9.8 | 8.1 | 7.5 | 19.3 | 1.8 | 2.9 |
| Chu Kong Petroleum | 1938 HK | NR | 2.58 | NR | 0.3 | 0.4 | 51.1 | 15.8 | 20.3 | 13.7 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.0 |
| Hilong Holding | 1623 HK | NR | 3.85 | NR | 0.8 | 4.8 | 14.7 | 10.2 | 6.9 | 5.8 | 14.4 | 1.9 | 2.5 |
| Honghua Group | 196 HK | NR | 1.91 | NR | 0.8 | 3.2 | 8.9 | 7.2 | 6.3 | 5.6 | 11.7 | 1.0 | 3.2 |
| Sinopec Engineering-H | 2386 HK | NR | 8.65 | NR | 4.9 | 8.6 | 7.4 | 7.2 | 3.5 | 3.2 | 26.1 | 1.4 | 4.7 |
| SPT Energy | 1251 HK | NR | 4.00 | NR | 0.8 | 4.3 | 16.1 | 12.9 | 7.4 | 5.6 | 17.8 | 2.7 | 1.6 |
| Alam Maritim | AMRB MK | Buy | 1.50 | 1.90 | 0.4 | 1.4 | 14.9 | 12.3 | 14.4 | 15.0 | 14.1 | 2.0 | 0.2 |
| Barakah Petroleum | BARAKAH MK | Buy | 1.54 | 1.85 | 0.3 | 1.8 | 18.1 | 18.6 | 13.3 | 8.9 | 27.0 | 4.3 | 0.0 |
| Bumi Armada | BAB MK | Buy | 3.99 | 5.00 | 3.6 | 3.3 | 27.1 | 24.8 | 11.2 | 13.4 | 10.6 | 2.7 | 0.8 |
| Coastal Contracts | COCO MK | NR | 4.95 | NR | 0.8 | 1.4 | 15.8 | 12.9 | 9.9 | 7.2 | 16.4 | 2.4 | 1.3 |
| Daya Materials | DAYA MK | NR | 0.34 | NR | 0.1 | 3.1 | 124.1 | 10.5 | 7.8 | 6.4 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| Dayang Enterprise | DEHB MK | NR | 3.70 | NR | 0.9 | 1.4 | 30.7 | 14.4 | 9.8 | 9.0 | 23.6 | 4.6 | 1.5 |
| Dialog | DLG MK | Buy | 3.58 | 3.90 | 2.7 | 5.6 | 44.4 | 30.3 | 28.5 | 26.8 | 15.2 | 6.4 | 0.9 |
| KNM | KNMG MK | NR | 0.91 | NR | 0.4 | 9.5 | 55.5 | 25.1 | n.a. | n.a. | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.0 |
| MMHE | MMHE MK | Buy | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Summary of Key Points
- Price Trends: Brent crude oil rose by 2.1%, while Henry Hub and Gold fell by 1.9% and 1.2% respectively.
- Production Growth: China's natural gas output hit a two-year high in March, indicating a shift toward cleaner energy.
- Capacity Expansion: Sinopec and Mitsui Elastomers expanded EPDM production capacity in Shanghai.
- Investment Moves: State Grid Corp. is considering a dollar-denominated bond, and Astomos Energy secured major LPG contracts with the U.S.
- Project Progress: Subsea 7 and Hallin Marine began phase III of ONGC G1 deep-water project.
- Capex Budgets: Petronas Dagangan allocated MYR700m for capex, with a focus on domestic and international operations.
- Analyst Ratings: Multiple companies in the region received "Buy" or "Hold" ratings with varied target prices.
This summary highlights the current market dynamics, production developments, investment strategies, and analyst insights for the oil and gas sector across Asia and the globe.
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