20170601-大华继显-Regional_Morning_Notes_29页_1mb
报告摘要
Regional Morning Notes Summary
Core Content
This document provides a detailed analysis of the financial markets and key sectors in China, Malaysia, and Singapore for June 1, 2017. It includes insights on economic indicators, sector performance, company-specific updates, and investment recommendations.
Key Stories
China
- Education Sector: The education sector is expected to experience multi-year growth due to rising demand for quality education and the increasing interest in overseas studies. The K12 after-school tutoring (AST) segment is highlighted as a high-growth opportunity with a potential market size of Rmb870b by 2020. New Oriental Education (EDU) and TAL Education Group (TAL) are recommended with a BUY rating, with target prices of US$86.00 and US$148.00 respectively.
- PMI: The official manufacturing PMI remained flat at 51.2% in May 2017, while the non-manufacturing PMI improved slightly to 54.5%. The construction sector saw a decline, and the reflation and restocking cycles are believed to be ending. Opportunities exist in new economy sectors such as pharmaceuticals, high-tech manufacturing, and media.
Malaysia
- Banking Sector: AMMB and RHBBank have requested a trading suspension, potentially due to a merger. The sector's performance is mixed, with a rise in gross impaired loan balances. The recommendation for the sector is MARKET WEIGHT.
- Company Updates:
- AMMB Holdings: Maintain HOLD, with a target price of RM4.90.
- Bumi Armada: Marks the start of a turnaround, with maiden earnings from Olombendo and Malta. Expected to support stronger performance in the second half of 2017.
- Sime Darby: Results within expectations, with better year-over-year performance driven by plantation, industrial, and motor divisions. On track for December listings.
Singapore
- Ascott Residence Trust (ART): Maintained HOLD with a target price of S$1.17.
Key Indices
| Index | Prev Close | 1D % | 1W % | 1M % | YTD % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJIA | 21008.7 | -0.1 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 6.3 |
| S&P 500 | 2411.8 | -0.0 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 7.7 |
| FTSE 100 | 7520.0 | -0.1 | 0.5 | 4.4 | 5.3 |
| AS30 | 5761.3 | 0.1 | -0.9 | -3.6 | 0.7 |
| CSI 300 | 3492.9 | 0.4 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 5.5 |
| FSSTI | 3210.8 | 0.2 | -0.6 | 1.1 | 11.5 |
| HSCEI | 10603.0 | -0.2 | 2.0 | 3.7 | 12.9 |
| HSI | 25660.7 | -0.2 | 1.0 | 4.2 | 16.6 |
| JCI | 5738.2 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0.9 | 8.3 |
| KLCI | 1765.9 | 0.0 | -0.3 | -0.1 | 7.6 |
| KOSPI | 2347.4 | 0.2 | 1.3 | 6.4 | 15.8 |
| Nikkei 225 | 19650.6 | -0.1 | -0.5 | 1.8 | 2.8 |
| BDI | 878 | -2.4 | -7.5 | -20.8 | -8.6 |
| CPO (RM/ml) | 2777 | -1.2 | -4.5 | 5.6 | -13.2 |
| Brent Crude (US$/bbl) | 51 | -2.8 | -5.9 | -1.9 | -10.7 |
Top Picks
BUY
| Company | Ticker | CP (Icy) | TP (Icy) | Pot. +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alibaba | BABA US | 122.46 | 139.00 | 13.5 |
| Beijing Ent. Water | 371 HK | 6.24 | 7.60 | 21.8 |
| Telekomunikasi | TLKM J | 4,350.00 | 5,000.00 | 14.9 |
| Tiga Pilar | AISA J | 2,200.00 | 2,500.00 | 13.6 |
| V.S. Industry | VSI MK | 1.95 | 2.20 | 12.8 |
| OCBC | OCBC SP | 10.49 | 11.70 | 11.5 |
| Siam Cement | SCC TB | 526.00 | 600.00 | 14.1 |
SELL
| Company | Ticker | CP (Icy) | TP (Icy) | Pot. +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Great Wall Motor | 2333 HK | 8.33 | 6.00 | -28.0 |
| MGM China | 2282 HK | 17.30 | 15.00 | -13.3 |
| Hartalega | HART MK | 6.07 | 4.07 | -32.9 |
Key Assumptions
| Country/Region | GDP (yoy) 2016 | GDP (yoy) 2017F | GDP (yoy) 2018F |
|---|---|---|---|
| US | 1.6 | 2.7 | 2.5 |
| Euro Zone | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.5 |
| Japan | 1.0 | 0.9 | 1.2 |
| Singapore | 2.0 | 2.4 | 2.8 |
| Malaysia | 4.2 | 4.5 | 4.7 |
| Thailand | 3.2 | 3.3 | 3.1 |
| Indonesia | 5.0 | 5.2 | 5.5 |
| Hong Kong | 1.9 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| China | 6.7 | 6.3 | 6.3 |
| Brent (Average) | 45 | 55 | 60 |
| CPO | 2,653 | 2,600 | 2,500 |
Corporate Events
| Event | Venue | Begin | Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Analyst Presentation on Singapore Property & REITs Strategy | US | 1 Jun | 6 Jun |
| Roadshow with Tongda Group Holdings | Hong Kong | 1 Jun | 1 Jun |
| Roadshow with United Overseas Bank | Canada | 2 Jun | 2 Jun |
| Group meeting with Fortune REIT | Hong Kong | 7 Jun | 7 Jun |
| Roadshow with Meidong Auto Holdings | Taipei | 8 Jun | 8 Jun |
| Roadshow with Tonly Electronics Holdings | Taipei | 8 Jun | 9 Jun |
| Roadshow with GFPT Public Company | Hong Kong | 8 Jun | 9 Jun |
| Roadshow with PT Siloam Int'l Hospital | Canada | 5 Jun | 16 Jun |
| Analyst Presentation on Spore Strategy | Kuala Lumpur | 15 Jun | 16 Jun |
| Luncheon with United Overseas Bank | Singapore | 3 Jul | 3 Jul |
| Sarawak Oil Palms Site Visit | Sarawak | 3 Jul | 5 Jul |
| New Economy Conference 2017 | Kuala Lumpur | 11 Jul | 11 Jul |
| Roadshow with Top Glove Corporation | US/Canada | 5 Sep | 12 Sep |
Sector Catalysts and Risks
China - Education
-
Catalysts:
- K12 AST market growing faster than expected.
- Online education penetrating suburban areas faster than expected.
-
Risks:
- Policy risk.
- Intense competition.
- Execution risk.
- Recruitment and retention of quality teachers.
China - Internet
-
Catalysts:
- Re-acceleration of industry growth.
- Strong performance in online retail and travel sectors.
- Global expansion and margin improvements.
-
Risks:
- Concerns over caps for big companies.
- Potential slowdown in outbound travel growth.
Analyst Contact
- Education Sector: Chaoping Zhu, +8621 5404 7225 ext. 822, chaoping@uobkayhian.com
- Internet Sector: Julia Pan, +8621 5404 7225 ext 808, Juliapan@uobkayhian.com
Conclusion
The document outlines a positive outlook for the education and internet sectors in China, highlighting growth opportunities and recommending specific stocks. It also notes the mixed performance in the banking sector in Malaysia and the overall economic slowdown in China. Investment recommendations are based on detailed analysis of financial metrics, market dynamics, and growth potential.
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