20160929-大华继显-Regional_Morning_Notes_29页_1mb
报告摘要
Regional Morning Notes Summary
Core Content Overview
This document provides an analysis of stock performance, company updates, and market trends for various regions and companies on 29 September 2016. It includes updates on earnings, corporate events, and valuation metrics for key firms in China, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand. The report also highlights strategic moves and financial performance, with a focus on the potential for growth and stability in the energy and education sectors.
Main Points by Region
China
- China Power International Devt (2380 HK)
- Company Update: Maintained a "BUY" rating with a target price of HK$5.00. Management highlighted the company's strong earnings stability due to its high hydro power exposure and smaller size, which allows for diversification away from thermal power risks.
- Hydro Power: 3.0GW equity capacity, contributing 18% to total power generation. In 1H16, hydro output surged 30% yoy, and it's expected to remain stable in 2016. Management expects increased hydro output in 2017 due to higher water reserves.
- Thermal Power: Coal price risk is expected to fade in 2017 due to policy changes increasing coal supply. CPI's fuel coal price in 8M16 was Rmb132/MWh, down 10% yoy.
- Capacity Growth: CPI aims to increase total capacity to 30GW by 2020, with 7GW from clean and renewable energy. It plans to expand through asset injections and organic growth, with a focus on hydro power in Guangxi and upstream of the Yellow River.
- Valuation: Trading at 0.6x 2017F P/B, with a dividend yield of 7%. Strong cash balance and earnings stability support the "BUY" recommendation.
- Financials: EBITDA margin at 51.7% in 2016F, with net profit (adj.) at Rmb3,226m. Net debt to equity ratio is 146.3% in 2016F, decreasing to 127.1% in 2017F.
- Key Metrics: EPS at 45.6 fen in 2016F, with a potential upside of +65.0% to the target price.
China Maple Leaf (1317 HK)
- Company Update: Maintained a "HOLD" rating with a target price of HK$7.77. Management is confident of reaching 23,000 students by end-FY17, with an expected 5,000 students added annually.
- Campus Tour: Positive investor feedback after visiting Dalian campuses. The girls' campus was noted for its spacious design, comparable to Canadian schools.
- Tuition Increases: High schools in Tianjin and Shanghai increased tuition by 23.5-31.8% for FY17, with plans to expand to Beijing and Shenzhen in 2018.
- Growth Strategy: Aims to achieve a "pyramid structure" by building more schools, including elementary and middle schools, to support long-term growth. The company also plans to expand internationally.
- Financials: Net profit (adj.) at Rmb273m in 2016F, with EPS at 20.1 cents. PE at 30.2x in 2016F, decreasing to 24.9x in 2017F. P/B at 4.3x in 2016F.
- Stock Catalysts: Expected student enrolment results in early-October and potential resolution of stock option disputes with Dingxianghui and Hong Kong Zhixin.
Key Market Indices (as of 29 September 2016)
| Index | Previous Close | 1D % | 1W % | 1M % | YTD % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJIA | 18339.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | (0.3) | 5.2 |
| S&P 500 | 2171.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 6.2 |
| FTSE 100 | 6849.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 9.7 |
| AS30 | 5500.2 | 0.1 | 1.3 | (1.1) | 2.9 |
| CSI 300 | 3230.9 | (0.3) | (1.1) | (2.3) | (13.4) |
| FSSTI | 2858.0 | (0.1) | 0.3 | 1.0 | (0.9) |
| HSCEI | 9719.8 | (0.3) | (1.3) | 2.3 | 0.6 |
| HSI | 23619.7 | 0.2 | (0.2) | 3.5 | 7.8 |
| JCI | 5425.3 | 0.1 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 18.1 |
| KLCI | 1665.0 | 0.0 | 0.4 | (1.0) | (1.6) |
| KOSPI | 2053.1 | (0.5) | 0.8 | 1.0 | 4.7 |
| Nikkei 225 | 16465.4 | (1.3) | (0.2) | (1.6) | (13.5) |
| SET | 1479.6 | (0.7) | (0.5) | (4.2) | 14.9 |
| TWSE | 9194.5 | (1.0) | 0.5 | 0.7 | 10.3 |
| BDI | 912 | (1.9) | 1.0 | 26.7 | 90.8 |
| CPO (RM/ml) | 2874 | (1.0) | (1.4) | 1.5 | 30.6 |
| Brent Crude | 49 | 5.9 | 4.0 | (2.5) | 30.6 |
Top Picks (BUY)
| Company | Ticker | Current Price | Target Price | Potential Upside (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Air China | 753 HK | HK$5.34 | HK$8.40 | 57.3 |
| Ping An Insurance | 2318 HK | HK$40.90 | HK$47.00 | 14.9 |
| Ciputra Property | CTRP LJ | LK$665.00 | LK$960.00 | 44.4 |
| Indosat | ISAT LJ | LK$5,850.00 | LK$9,500.00 | 62.4 |
| Genting Bhd | GENT MK | RM7.99 | RM10.00 | 25.2 |
| City Dev | CIT SP | S$8.95 | S$10.36 | 15.8 |
| OCBC | OCBC SP | S$8.60 | S$10.30 | 19.8 |
| Bangkok Dusit | BDMS TB | Bt22.00 | Bt30.00 | 36.4 |
| Siam Cement | SCC TB | Bt516.00 | Bt645.00 | 25.0 |
Corporate Events
- Regional Financial and Telco Sector Analyst Presentation: UK/Europe, 26-30 Sep
- Xingda In’l Group Meeting: Hong Kong, 29 Sep
- Citytheon Corporate Roadshow: Taipei, 29-30 Sep
- LVGEM (China) Real Estate Investment Shenzhen Company Limited Roadshow: Kuala Lumpur, 30 Sep
- Ricoh Site Visit: Kuala Lumpur, 5 Oct
- SIN Bank, SIN Teleco and ASEAN Banks Analyst Presentation: Kuala Lumpur, 6-7 Oct
- Xtep International Holdings Roadshow: Taipei (7 Oct), Kuala Lumpur (15 Nov)
- Asian Gems Conference 2016: Singapore, 11-12 Oct
- Harmony China Auto Luncheon: Hong Kong, 12 Oct
- Joy City Roadshow: Shanghai, 13 Oct
- Metro Pacific Investments Roadshow: Canada, 24-25 Nov
- KL Kepong Site Visit: Malaysia, 25 Oct
Key Assumptions
| Country | 2015 GDP (%) | 2016F GDP (%) | 2017F GDP (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| US | 2.6 | 2.0 | 2.7 |
| Euro Zone | 2.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 |
| Japan | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| Singapore | 2.0 | 2.2 | 3.2 |
| Malaysia | 5.0 | 4.2 | 4.5 |
| Thailand | 2.8 | 3.2 | 3.5 |
| Indonesia | 4.8 | 5.0 | 5.2 |
| Hong Kong | 2.4 | 2.1 | 1.8 |
| China | 6.9 | 6.5 | 6.2 |
- Brent Crude (Average): 53.60 US$/bbl in 2015, 42 US$/bbl in 2016F, and 54 US$/bbl in 2017F.
- CPO (RM/mt): 2,168 in 2015, 2,500 in 2016F, and 2,600 in 2017F.
Key Earnings and Financial Highlights
-
China Power International Devt (2380 HK):
- Earnings: Net profit (adj.) at Rmb3,226m in 2016F, with a forecast of Rmb3,037m in 2017F.
- Cash Flow: Ending cash and cash equivalent at Rmb3,339m in 2017F, with net cash inflow of Rmb849m.
- Debt Management: Net debt to equity at 146.3% in 2016F, decreasing to 127.1% in 2017F.
- Dividend Yield: 7% in 2017F.
-
China Maple Leaf (1317 HK):
- Earnings: Net profit (adj.) at Rmb273m in 2016F, with a forecast of Rmb331m in 2017F.
- Growth: Aims to reach 40,000 students by FY20 through M&As and organic growth.
- PE Ratio: 30.2x in 2016F, decreasing to 24.9x in 2017F.
Peer Comparison (2016F-2017F)
| Company | Ticker | Share Price | Market Cap (US$m) | PE (2016F) | PE (2017F) | P/B (2016F) | P/B (2017F) | Div Yield (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| China Maple Leaf | 1317 HK | HK$6.91 | 1,212.5 | 30.2 | 24.9 | 4.3 | 3.8 | 1.7 |
| New Oriental Education | EDU US* | US$47.17 | 7,402.5 | 26.4 | 21.4 | 4.4 | 3.7 | 0.4 |
| Nord Anglia | NORD US | US$21.52 | 2,240.0 | 33.6 | 30.7 | 7.6 | 6.5 | 0.0 |
| TAL Education | XRS US | US$69.91 | 5,654.5 | 49.7 | 33.4 | 10.5 | 8.0 | 0.0 |
| Vircend Education | 1565 HK | HK$4.19 | 1,668.8 | 34.3 | 27.7 | 4.3 | 3.9 | - |
Conclusion
The report highlights China Power International Devt as a top pick due to its strong earnings stability, diversification into hydro and renewable energy, and potential for significant capacity growth. China Maple Leaf is recommended to be held, with a focus on its expansion strategy and potential student enrolment results. The document also provides a detailed overview of market indices, corporate events, and key assumptions, offering insights into regional financial trends and investment opportunities.
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