20150127-大华继显-Regional_Morning_Notes_29页_1mb

报告摘要

Regional Morning Notes Summary

Core Content Overview

This document provides a summary of financial updates and market analysis for several Asian markets and specific companies in China, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore, as well as key indices and investment recommendations. The focus is on earnings performance, share price movements, and strategic developments affecting the companies.

Main Points and Key Information

China

China Petroleum & Chemical Corp (386 HK)

Update: Deteriorating earnings due to sharp oil price correction are expected to exert near-term pressure on the share price.
Earnings Impact:
- 4Q14: Refining segment EBIT is projected to drop to Rmb11b, while E&P segment EBIT is expected to fall to Rmb3.2b.
- 1Q15: Refining segment EBIT is expected to drop to Rmb3.5b, and E&P segment to turn into a net loss of Rmb3b.
Financials:
- 2014F Net profit: Rmb44.2b (down 33% yoy).
- 2015F Net profit: Rmb29.85b.
- EBITDA margin: 5.4% (2014F), down from 6.2% in 2013.
Valuation:
- Current share price: HK$6.26.
- Target price: HK$6.40.
- P/B ratio: 0.8x (trough since the global financial crisis).
Recommendation: Maintain HOLD.

Great Wall Motor (2333 HK)

Update: 4Q14 operating profit up 14% yoy, but net profit down 2% yoy to Rmb8.05b.
Earnings Growth:
- 2015F net profit forecast: Rmb8.563b (down 30-50% from consensus).
- EBIT margin: Expected to drop to 12-13% by 2016.
Capacity Utilisation:
- 2014F: 83%.
- 2015F: 79%.
- 2016F: 82%.
Valuation:
- Current share price: HK$42.65.
- Target price: HK$29.00.
- Upside: -32.0%.
Recommendation: Maintain SELL.

Indonesia

Strategy

Progress on the new land law and airport infrastructure development is highlighted as a key area of focus.
The Angkasa Pula 1 meeting is referenced for insights on these developments.

Malaysia

Property Sector

Tropicana City Mall & Office Tower: Sold to CapitaMalls Malaysia Trust for RM540m.

Bursa Malaysia (BURSA MK)

Update: Expect seasonally weaker 4Q14 earnings, partially due to 3Q14's high base.
Trading Volume: Early indications of a sharp slowdown in 1Q15 average trading volume.
Valuation:
- Current share price: RM8.20.
- Target price: RM7.90.
Recommendation: Maintain HOLD.

Singapore

Strategy

Tactical Trends: Potential trades based on ECB's QE program and Keppel Land privatisation.
Favored Stocks: CapitaLand, Wing Tai, Ezion, Pacific Radiance, Kris Energy, and SembCorp Industries.

Tigerair (TGR SP)

Update: Improved pricing power, but traffic growth falters.
Valuation:
- Current share price: S$0.32.
- Target price: S$0.34.
Recommendation: Maintain HOLD.

Key Indices Performance

Index	Previous Close	1D %	1W %	1M %	YTD %
DJIA	17678.7	0.0	1.0	-2.1	-0.8
S&P 500	2057.1	0.3	1.9	-1.5	-0.1
FTSE 100	6852.4	0.3	4.1	3.7	4.4
AS30	5468.0	-0.0	3.4	1.8	1.5
CSI 300	3608.0	1.0	7.5	4.7	2.1
FSSTI	3398.5	-0.4	2.7	1.3	1.0
HSCEI	12228.2	-0.3	6.6	5.8	2.0
HSI	24909.9	0.2	4.9	6.7	5.5
JCI	5260.0	-1.2	2.1	1.8	0.6
KLCI	1796.4	-0.4	2.5	1.8	2.0
KOSPI	1935.7	-0.0	1.7	-0.6	1.0
Nikkei 225	17468.5	-0.2	2.7	-2.0	0.1
SET	1588.3	-0.6	3.4	5.2	6.1
TWSE	9477.7	0.1	3.3	2.8	1.8

Top Picks (BUY)

Company	Ticker	Current Price	Target Price	Potential Upside
Sunac China	1918 HK	HK$7.13	HK$9.29	30.3%
ICBC	1398 HK	HK$5.83	HK$6.90	18.4%
Bank Mandiri	BMRI LJ	11,100.00	12,500.00	12.6%
Gamuda	GAM MK	HK$5.09	HK$5.50	8.1%
DBS	DBS SP	HK$19.93	HK$22.68	13.8%
Pacific Radiance	PACRA SP	HK$0.74	HK$1.00	35.1%
Bangkok Bank	BBL TB	HK$194.00	HK$230.00	18.6%
Advanced Info	ADVANC	HK$252.00	HK$270.00	7.1%

Sell Recommendation

UMWH Holdings (UMWH MK):
- Current price: HK$10.92.
- Target price: HK$10.00.
- Potential downside: -8.4%.

Key Assumptions

Metric	2014F	2015F	2016F
GDP growth (% yoy)	5.2	5.8	5.8
Brent (US$/bbl)	99.45	65	70
CPO (US$/mt)	722	765	788
BDI	1,101	1,300	1,400

Corporate Events

Event	Venue	Start Date	End Date
Singapore and Indonesia Telecom Analyst Presentation	Kuala Lumpur	26 Jan	27 Jan
Malaysia 1H15 Strategy Analyst Presentation	Singapore	29 Jan	30 Jan
China 1H15 Market Strategy Analyst Presentation	Taipei	29 Jan	30 Jan
Oil & Gas Sector Analyst Presentation	Hong Kong	5 Feb	6 Feb

Analysts

Yan Shi: +8621 5404 7225 x 804, yan.shi@uobkayhian.com
Terry Zhou: +8621 5404 7225 x 819, terryzhou@uobkayhian.com

Summary of Key Financial Metrics

China Petroleum & Chemical Corp (386 HK)

EPS (fen): 25.6 (2015F).
PE (x): 19.7 (2015F).
P/B (x): 0.8 (2015F).
EV/EBITDA (x): 7.1 (2015F).
Net margin (%): 1.2 (2015F).
Net debt/(cash) to equity (%): 27.1 (2015F).

Great Wall Motor (2333 HK)

EPS (Fen): 281.5 (2015F).
PE (x): 11.9 (2015F).
P/B (x): 2.6 (2015F).
EV/EBITDA (x): 11.1 (2015F).
Net margin (%): 11.0 (2015F).
Net debt/(cash) to equity (%): -13.5 (2015F).

Summary of Earnings Forecasts

Segment	1Q14 (Rmbb)	4Q14F (Rmbb)	1Q15F (Rmbb)
E&P	13.0	3.2	-3.0
Refining EBIT	3.5	-11.0	-7.5
Marketing	8.7	3.5	4.0
Petrochemical	-1.4	1.0	0.0
Others	0.3	-1.0	0.0
Total	24.1	-4.5	-6.5
Net Profit	14.1	-7.4	-8.5

Summary of Profit & Loss

Metric	2013 (Rmbm)	2014F (Rmbm)	2015F (Rmbm)	2016F (Rmbm)
Net turnover	2,880,311	2,919,243	2,530,874	2,738,434
EBITDA	178,050	156,905	140,989	163,238
Net profit (rep./act.)	63,879	44,216	29,850	38,917
EPS (fen)	73.6	56.7	37.9	25.6

Summary of Valuation and Recommendation

China Petroleum & Chemical Corp (386 HK):
- Valuation: 0.8x P/B.
- Recommendation: Maintain HOLD.
- Risk: Near-term share price pressure due to earnings deterioration.
Great Wall Motor (2333 HK):
- Valuation: 12x 2015F PE.
- Recommendation: Maintain SELL.
- Risk: Margin pressure and over-optimistic earnings expectations.

Summary of Key Risks and Catalysts

China Petroleum & Chemical Corp (386 HK):
- Risks: Deteriorating earnings, inventory loss.
- Catalysts: Announcement of below-consensus results, oil price volatility.
Great Wall Motor (2333 HK):
- Risks: Margin erosion, low earnings quality.
- Catalysts: Release of monthly sales results, reporting of 1Q15 results.