期刊-NBER美国国民经济研究局-2011no2_32页_1mb

NBER Reporter Summary - 2011 Number 2

Core Content

The NBER Reporter issue from 2011 Number 2 focuses on research conducted by the International Trade and Investment (ITI) Program, which includes 90 current members. The report highlights several key areas of research related to international trade patterns, trade policies, export credit, offshoring, and monopolistic competition models. It also provides an overview of the NBER's structure, funding sources, and related activities such as conferences and publications.

Main Research Topics

1. The Great Trade Collapse (2008-2009)

• The financial crisis led to a 30% drop in global trade relative to GDP, more severe than previous post-war recessions.
• Key factors contributing to the collapse include:
  • Inventory adjustment: A rapid decline in imports due to firms reducing stock levels.
  • Demand for durable vs. non-durable goods: Durable goods saw a sharper decline in demand.
  • Intermediate inputs: Disruptions in supply chains amplified the impact of the crisis.
  • Trade credit: Credit constraints on exports played a role, especially in Japan and China.
• Findings:
  • Trade credit was significant in Japan and China, accounting for 20% of export decline in Japan and 15% in Peru.
  • Eaton, Kortum, Neiman, and Romalis argue that the decline in demand for durable goods was the most important driver of the trade collapse.
  • Trade frictions had a small global impact, but were significant in certain countries.

2. Offshoring, Wages, and Employment

• Offshoring (fragmentation of production across borders) affects wages and employment.
• Key insights:
  • Offshoring increases wages of low-skilled labor in small-country models, but reduces relative wages in large-country models.
  • Hanson and Chong Xiang analyze U.S. data and find that occupations, not industries, are the best unit for analyzing wage effects.
  • Gianmarco Ottaviano, Giovanni Peri, and Greg Wright examine the interaction between offshoring and immigration.
  • Unemployment is influenced by offshoring, with search frictions and fair wages being important factors.
  • Mitra and Ranjan suggest that offshoring can reduce unemployment due to cost savings.
  • Helpman, Itskhoki, and Redding model trade and unemployment using search frictions, wage bargaining, and firm heterogeneity.
  • Cosar, Guner, and Tybout use Colombian data to study the effects of trade on labor market outcomes.

3. Extending the Monopolistic Competition Model

• The monopolistic competition model is widely used in international trade research.
• Key extensions:
  • Melitz introduced heterogeneous firms with random productivity, challenging the assumption of symmetric firm sizes.
  • Arkolakis added marketing costs to the model, allowing for the presence of small exporters.
  • Vogel introduced heterogeneous firms into a spatial version of the model.
  • Product quality and variety are also examined, with implications for welfare and consumer preferences.
  • Baldwin, Harrigan, and Ito explore the dichotomy between industries based on productivity and quality competition.
  • Blonigen and Soderbery compare methods of measuring product variety in the automobile industry.
  • Goldberg, Khandelwal, Pavcnik, and Topalova show that importing more intermediate inputs increases downstream productivity.
  • Broda, Greenfield, and Weinstein demonstrate that product variety can enhance efficiency and growth.

4. Trade Policy and Welfare

• Research explores the impact of trade policies such as tariffs, quotas, and free trade agreements (FTAs).
• Key findings:
  • In the textile and apparel sector, the phase-out of quotas led to a shift in product types exported by China, reducing competition for other countries.
  • Steel industry responses to tariffs and quotas are highly sensitive to market structure.
  • Autor, Dorn, and Hanson examine the impact of WTO accession on U.S. trade flows and find that tariff reductions have significant welfare implications.
  • McLaren and Hakobyan analyze NAFTA's impact on U.S. labor markets, finding negative effects on blue-collar workers.
  • Bagwell and Staiger use game-theoretic models to show that WTO rules can lead to welfare improvements.
  • Aghion, Antras, and Helpman model preferential trade agreements as sequential bargaining, generating both building bloc and stumbling bloc effects.
  • Ossa and Maggi offer alternative explanations for WTO-type rules, including home market effects and incompleteness of trade agreements.

Key Information

• The NBER is a private, nonprofit research organization established in 1920.
• It is supported by individuals, corporations, and private foundations.
• The ITI Program focuses on trade patterns, trade policy, foreign direct investment, and immigration.
• Conferences and publications are central to the NBER's mission.
• Firm-level data is crucial for analyzing trade impacts, especially in understanding heterogeneous firm behavior.
• Non-homothetic preferences and CES preferences are important in modeling trade outcomes and welfare gains.
• The monopolistic competition model has been extended to include product quality, product variety, and firm heterogeneity.

NBER Structure

• President and CEO: James M. Poterba
• Controller: Kelly Horak
• Board of Directors includes prominent economists and representatives from various organizations.
• Directors by University Appointment: Includes scholars from top institutions such as Harvard, MIT, and Columbia.
• Directors by Appointment of Other Organizations: Includes members from the American Economic Association, American Institute of Certified Public Accountants, and others.

Conclusion

The NBER's International Trade and Investment Program contributes significantly to understanding global trade dynamics, policy impacts, and economic outcomes. The research emphasizes the complex interplay of factors such as credit constraints, supply chain disruptions, offshoring, and trade policies, all of which shape international trade patterns and welfare effects. The use of micro data, game-theoretic models, and monopolistic competition frameworks highlights the NBER's commitment to empirical and theoretical rigor in economic research.