期刊-NBER美国国民经济研究局-Spring1984_40页_885kb

NBER Program in Economic Fluctuations Summary

Core Content

The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) is a private, nonprofit research organization established in 1920, dedicated to the objective quantitative analysis of the American economy. Its Program in Economic Fluctuations focuses on studying movements in employment, inflation, and output within the U.S. economy. The program has been active in analyzing recent economic trends, including declining inflation, high unemployment, large deficits, and expanding employment and output.

Main Research Areas and Findings

1. Economic Fluctuations and Business Cycles

• The program investigates how economic variables like employment, inflation, and output fluctuate over time.
• The NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee identifies peaks and troughs in economic activity, such as the peak in July 1981 and the trough in November 1982.
• A major conference on the changing nature of the business cycle was held in Puerto Rico in March 1983, with a detailed report expected in the Summer 1984 issue.

2. Research Activities and Collaborations

• Ray C. Fair examines the impact of expected future government deficits on economic decisions, especially those of the Federal Reserve.
• Herschel I. Grossman analyzes asset price volatility and has developed a framework for studying monetary policy as the purposeful behavior of policymakers.
• Stephen R. King focuses on monetary transmission and the role of bank credit, as well as the demand for money and its paradoxical response to inflation.
• Andrew B. Abel explores the implications of uncertainty about one's date of death on consumption and portfolio behavior, and on aggregate capital accumulation.
• Robert G. King studies macroeconomic and monetary theory using an equilibrium approach, including identification problems and the role of banking in economies with limited information.

3. NBER's Tax Simulation Model (TAXSIM)

• Daniel R. Feenberg discusses the TAXSIM model, a tool for calculating income tax liabilities based on federal and state tax laws from 1972 to 1983.
• The model has been used in various studies, including:
  • Dividends and Section 163(d): Miller and Scholes argue that Section 163(d) of the tax code may explain the preference for dividends over capital gains. However, evidence from TAXSIM shows that this section does not significantly affect the majority of taxpayers.
  • Identification in Tax-Price Regressions: Feenberg proposes an estimator to accurately measure the tax-price elasticity of charitable giving, using state-level variations in tax law as an instrument.
  • Taxation of Married Couples: The 1981 tax law introduced changes such as the secondary earner's deduction (SED) and expanded child care credits. These policies have had mixed effects on marriage neutrality, with SED reducing the marriage penalty and increasing the marriage bonus, but not fully neutralizing the impact of joint filing.

Key Publications and Dissemination

• The NBER has published "Inflation: Causes and Effects", a volume resulting from its program on inflation, which has seen strong sales in paperback format.
• The program's research is largely disseminated through NBER Working Papers, which are often published in major journals such as the American Economic Review, Journal of Political Economy, and Journal of Monetary Economics.
• The NBER also organizes and sponsors conferences and seminars, including the International Seminar on Macroeconomics (ISOM), which brings together macroeconomists from around the world.

Conferences and Meetings

• The program holds regular meetings and annual conferences, such as the Conference on Macroeconomics in July 1984, organized by Olivier J. Blanchard, Frederic S. Mishkin, and Kenneth Singleton.
• These meetings are a key platform for sharing research findings and fostering collaboration among economists.

Fiscal Policy and Saving

• Laurence J. Kotlikoff discusses the determinants of saving, highlighting the importance of intergenerational transfers in the U.S. economy.
• The U.S. net national saving rate has averaged less than 7% since 1980, significantly lower than previous decades and compared to other developed countries.
• The economic deficit concept is introduced as a more accurate measure of intergenerational redistribution than the traditional accounting deficit.
• Unofficial deficit policies, such as unfunded Social Security programs and changes in investment incentives, can have significant effects on capital and savings, often not reflected in official deficit figures.

Conclusion

The NBER's Program in Economic Fluctuations continues to be a leading source of research on macroeconomic issues, including business cycles, fiscal policy, and the effects of taxation on economic behavior. The program's work is widely disseminated through working papers, conferences, and collaborations with international institutions, contributing significantly to the understanding of economic dynamics in the U.S. and beyond.