2025-06-12-Jefferies-CMC_Markets（CMCX）_新预测_目标价维持不变_11页_307kb

Summary of CMC Markets Research Report

The Jefferies Equity Research report, dated June 13, 2025, analyzes CMC Markets, a provider of online financial trading and institutional technology services. The key points from the analysis are as follows:

• Equity Research and Rating: The report maintains a 'Hold' rating with a 12-month price target (PT) of £2.75, which is 6% above the current share price. The PT is based on a discounted cash flow (DCF) model and comparison to peer valuations at approximately 12x forecasted FY26 earnings per share (EPS).

• Forecast Changes: Net operating income for FY26 is estimated to increase by 5% year-over-year (YoY), with modest revenue growth assumptions. Specifically, net operating income rises to £344.7 million, while profit before tax (PBT) increases by 15% to £84.5 million. EPS is projected to grow by 12%, while trailing EPS consensus is slightly lower. The company assumes moderate cost growth and stable or increasing operating costs, noting potential savings from past initiatives.

• Company Transition and Strategy: CMC Markets is expanding into decentralized finance (DeFi) to diversify from pure contract for difference (CFD) trading. This includes acquiring StrikeX in May 2025 to offer 24/7 crypto trading, adding more trading days. The transition involves providing technology services to other financial firms, which currently limits revenue predictability.

• Valuation and Risks: The DCF produces a £275 PT, aligning with peer multiples such as IGG and PLUS. Upside risks include higher trading volumes from volatility and increased B2B platform rollouts. Downside risks involve regulatory hurdles, low market volatility, or unmet growth initiatives. Financial volatility and aggressive expansion could impact performance.

• Additional Details: CMC Markets operates in four product areas: CFDs, spread betting, prime derivatives, and stockbroking. The report highlights risks to PBT margins (around 25%) and potential upside from the ANZ white-label deal and cost savings. The sustainability focus and past performance data are included for context.

Overall, the analysis suggests CMC is positioned to benefit from financial and DeFi convergence but faces execution risks in its new business segments.