中国新兴前沿_入境游——输出款待；输入全球品牌_46页_3mb

China's Inbound Tourism Growth Outlook

• Market Forecast: Inbound tourism revenue expected to grow from US$94bn (2024) to US$525bn by 2034 (19% CAGR), with lodging revenue reaching US$65bn (20% CAGR).
• Key Drivers: Relaxed visa policies, digital payment upgrades, and improving infrastructure.
• Geographic Expansion: Shift from Tier-1 cities (e.g., Beijing, Shanghai) to Tier-2/cities (e.g., Chengdu, Xi'an), offering untapped opportunities.

Industry Impact

1. Revenue Contribution: Inbound tourists spend US$85-125 per night, driving growth in high-end hotels (+RevPAR outperformance).
   • Example: Shenzhen hotels saw +4% YoY RevPAR in 2025.
2. Hotel Chains: International brands (Marriott, Hyatt, Hilton) capture ~55% of inbound lodging market share by 2034, up from 50%.
3. RevPAR Growth: Inbound tourism to boost industry RevPAR CAGR to 5% by 2034, compared to the market consensus of 1%.

Key Beneficiaries

• Marriott: Largest high-end portfolio in China (85% of properties in luxury/upscale).
• Hyatt: Strong Tier-2 city presence and fastest-growing portfolio in China.
• Trip.com (TCOM): Leverages one-stop-shop booking platform, price leadership, and strong inbound traffic.
• Zhongdo Hotels (HTHT): Domestic leader with expansion into upscale segment.

Risks & Catalysts

• Risks: Slower global tourist growth, RevPAR declines, and franchisee hesitation.
• Catalysts: Visa policy liberalization, flight capacity recovery, and government incentives.

Footnote: Morgan Stanley may have a conflict of interest due to business ties with covered companies. For detailed disclosures, refer to the report.