2022年全球风险报告（英）-世界经济论坛-2022-117页_5mb

The Global Risks Report 2022 Summary

Core Content

The Global Risks Report 2022, the 17th edition, is published by the World Economic Forum. It highlights the increasing global risks and challenges posed by the ongoing impacts of the pandemic, climate change, digital dependencies, migration barriers, and space competition. The report is based on the Global Risks Perception Survey (GRPS), which gathered insights from nearly 1,000 global experts and over 12,000 country-level leaders.

Main Points

Global Risks Perceptions

• Societal and environmental risks are seen as the most concerning in the short and medium term.
  • "Social cohesion erosion", "livelihood crises", and "mental health deterioration" are perceived as the most deteriorated risks since the pandemic began.
• Only 16% of respondents feel positive and optimistic about the global outlook.
• 11% believe the global recovery will accelerate over the next three years.
• Most expect the next three years to be marked by consistent volatility or fractured trajectories.

Long-Term Risks

• Environmental risks dominate long-term concerns, with "climate action failure", "extreme weather", and "biodiversity loss" ranking as the top three most severe risks over the next 10 years.
• Debt crises and geoeconomic confrontations are also among the most severe risks over the next decade.

Economic Recovery

• The global economy is expected to be 2.3% smaller by 2024 than it would have been without the pandemic.
• Supply chain disruptions, inflation, debt, labour market gaps, protectionism, and educational disparities are key economic risks.
• The poorest 52 countries have a vaccination rate of only 6%, while advanced economies have surpassed pre-pandemic growth expectations.

Divergent Recovery Trajectories

• The uneven economic recovery is creating global divisions and compounding social and geopolitical tensions.
• Countries with rapid digitalization and vaccine rollouts are recovering faster, while others face stagnant job markets, digital divides, and health system stress.

Climate Transition

• "Climate action failure" is the number one long-term threat.
• A disorderly climate transition with divergent trajectories across sectors and countries risks increasing inequalities and geopolitical frictions.
• Unintended consequences of hasty environmental policies may harm nature and public support for land use changes.

Digital Dependencies

• Growing digital dependency has intensified cybersecurity threats.
• Cyberattacks have increased significantly, with malware and ransomware attacks rising by 358% and 435% in 2020.
• Unilateral approaches to cybersecurity could worsen international tensions.

Migration Barriers

• Involuntary migration is a top long-term concern.
• 60% of GRPS respondents believe that international efforts to mitigate migration and refugee issues are not started or in early development.
• Higher migration barriers are expected to impede economic recovery and increase global insecurity.

Space Competition

• Increased space activity is creating new opportunities but also risks.
• Militarization and weaponization of space are emerging concerns.
• Collisions and space debris could threaten Earth's critical systems and international cooperation.

Resilience and Collaboration

• Resilience is critical in addressing global risks.
• Restoring trust and fostering cooperation are essential for collaborative global action.
• Resilience strategies should include systemic vulnerability assessments, diverse approaches, and whole-of-society efforts.

Key Findings

• 84% of GRPS respondents are either worried or concerned about the global outlook.
• Infectious diseases remain a critical short-term threat.
• Mental health deterioration is among the top five risks that have worsened during the pandemic.
• Commodity shocks, price instability, and debt crises are emerging as key medium-term economic risks.
• Global debt has increased to 97% of GDP in 2020, with developing countries at heightened risk due to debt deleveraging and US dollar appreciation.

Conclusion

The Global Risks Report 2022 underscores the increasing complexity of global challenges, particularly in the wake of the pandemic and its economic and societal consequences. It emphasizes the need for cooperation, trust, and resilience to navigate these risks and ensure a sustainable and equitable future.