2025年全球风险报告（英）-世界经济论坛-2025_103页_12mb

Summary of the Global Risks Report 2025

Introduction

The Global Risks Report 2025, published by the World Economic Forum, examines global risk perceptions based on data collected from over 900 experts across academia, business, government, and civil society. It highlights the evolving risks landscape from short-term (2025-2027) to long-term (2025-2035), emphasizing the urgent need for collective action.

Key Findings

Short-Term Risks (2025-2027):

• Dominant Immediate Concern: State-based armed conflict ranks as the #1 risk, driven by ongoing conflicts in Ukraine, the Middle East, and Sudan. Misinformation and disinformation (#2) and extreme weather events (#3) are also top concerns.
• Economic Risks: Inflation and economic downturn (#7 and #9 respectively) have eased compared to 2024, but remain significant for specific stakeholder groups.
• Technology Risks: Adverse outcomes of frontier technologies (#6) and cyber espionage (#5) are rising concerns, amplified by rapid AI advancements.
• Societal Risks: Inequality (#7) and societal polarization (#8) continue to threaten social cohesion.

Long-Term Risks (2035):

• Environmental Dominance: Extreme weather events remain #1, with biodiversity loss (#2), critical change to Earth systems (#3) and natural resource shortages (#4) dominating the top 10.
• Health and Demographics: Decline in health and well-being (#8), super-ageing societies (#9) and insufficient public infrastructure (#10) pose systemic challenges.
• Technological Concerns: Adverse outcomes of AI (#6) and frontier technologies (#7) rise alongside economic risks like crime and illicit activity (#8).

Detailed Risk Themes

1. Geopolitical Recession:

   • Multilateralism is weakening, with unilateralism exacerbating conflicts like in Ukraine and the Middle East. Escalating tariffs and sanctions ("geoeconomic confrontation") worsen economic fragmentation.

2. Technology and Polarization:

   • AI and biotech advancements accelerate, but risks like bioweapons, ethical dilemmas, and algorithmic bias loom larger. Misinformation fueled by GenAI deepens societal divides.

3. Pollution:

   • Pollution (#10 long-term) is a worsening environmental threat, including air, water, and plastic pollution, disproportionately affecting low-income countries.

4. Super-Ageing Societies:

   • Pension crises and labour shortages in long-term care are expected in aging societies, straining economies.

Recommendations

• Multi-Stakeholder Collaboration: Strengthen global treaties (e.g., for AI governance) and public-private partnerships to address fragmentation.
• Policy Innovation: Invest in green technologies, digital literacy, and ethical AI frameworks.
• Resilience Building: Prioritize climate adaptation, healthcare infrastructure, and inclusive growth to mitigate cascading risks.

Key Takeaway

The report underscores that today's risks, if unaddressed, will compound over the next decade. The triple planetary crisis (climate, pollution, biodiversity loss) and geopolitical divisions demand urgent, collaborative action to avoid irreversible damage.