世界经济论坛-2024年全球风险报告（英）-2024-124页_8mb

Global Risks Report 2024 Summary

Core Content

The Global Risks Report 2024 is the 19th edition of the World Economic Forum's annual assessment of global risks, highlighting the challenges and opportunities facing the world in the short and long term. The report is based on the Global Risks Perception Survey (GRPS), which gathered insights from nearly 1,500 global experts across various sectors, including academia, business, government, and civil society. It also incorporates data from the Executive Opinion Survey (EOS), involving over 11,000 business leaders in 113 economies, and qualitative input from leading experts.

The report is structured into three main chapters:

• Chapter 1: Global Risks 2024: At a turning point
• Chapter 2: Global Risks 2034: Over the limit
• Chapter 3: Responding to global risks

The findings are contextualized through four structural forces shaping the global risks landscape:

1. Climate change
2. Demographic bifurcation
3. Technological acceleration
4. Geoastrategic shifts

Key Findings

Short-term (2 years) Global Risks

Long-term (10 years) Global Risks

Main Themes and Insights

• Environmental risks remain dominant, with extreme weather events being the top risk in the short term and a significant presence in the long term. The warming phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle is expected to intensify and persist.
• Misinformation and disinformation are rising as a critical risk, especially in politically sensitive contexts like elections, where they could undermine the legitimacy of new governments.
• Societal polarization is a growing concern, with the potential to exacerbate other risks and disrupt global cooperation.
• Economic uncertainty is widespread, with inflation, economic downturns, and the cost-of-living crisis affecting both individuals and countries. The report emphasizes that low- and middle-income countries are particularly vulnerable.
• Geopolitical tensions are increasing, with the potential for conflict contagion and a shift towards a multipolar world order. This could lead to a fragmented global governance system and hinder collective action on risks.
• Technological acceleration, especially in AI, is a double-edged sword. While it offers opportunities, it also risks increasing inequality and creating new security threats.
• Climate change could push the world to a 3°C warming scenario by the early 2030s, with potential irreversible impacts on Earth systems.
• Illicit economic activity and corruption are expected to rise, especially in vulnerable states, contributing to a crime wave.
• Global governance is under strain, with a lack of consensus and cooperation making it difficult to address transnational risks effectively.

Major Views

• The world is at a turning point, with systemic shifts in climate, technology, demographics, and geopolitics creating new risks and challenges.
• Global cooperation is essential but may erode as the world becomes more fragmented.
• Fragmented governance and lack of alignment among key decision-makers could lead to missed opportunities for intervention.
• Technological and environmental risks are increasingly intertwined, with AI and climate change potentially accelerating each other's impacts.
• Societal resilience is being tested by misinformation, polarization, and economic instability, which could undermine trust and institutions.
• The report emphasizes the need for localized strategies, breakthrough endeavors, collective actions, and cross-border collaboration to mitigate global risks and build long-term resilience.

Critical Information

• The Global Risks Perception Survey (GRPS) is the primary data source, capturing the views of 1,490 experts and 11,000 business leaders.
• The Global Risks Report Advisory Board, Global Future Council on Complex Risks, and Chief Risk Officers Community contribute to the analysis.
• The World Economic Forum acknowledges the contributions of partners such as Marsh McLennan and Zurich Insurance Group.
• The report highlights the importance of foresight and preparedness in a world where risks are increasingly complex and non-linear.
• A multiplicity of possible futures is expected over the next decade, with the potential for both positive and negative outcomes.

Conclusion

The Global Risks Report 2024 underscores the urgency of addressing global risks through a combination of local and global strategies, innovation and research, and collaborative governance. It calls for open dialogue and action among leaders in government, business, and civil society to minimize risks and seize opportunities for long-term development and stability.