欧洲央行货币分析调查-汇总结果（英）_15页_933kb

报告摘要

Deposit Facility Rate (DFR): Expected to steady at 1.75% to 2.00% for 2025, with a medium-term increase to 2.00-2.25% and long-term peaking at 2.25%. Median path shows slight declines initially, followed by gradual increases.
Main Refinancing Operations (MRO): Rates expected to start at 1.90% in 2026, rising to 2.40%-2.65% by 2028, indicating gradual normalization.
Marginal Lending Facility (MLF): Similar to MRO trends, expected to decline initially to 2.15% and increase to 2.65% by 2028.
€STR and Euribor: Both show decreases in 2026, with €STR expected around 1.70% and Euribor around 1.80% during 2026, rising gradually.
Bond Yields: Short-term expectations include decreases in German, French, Italian, and Spanish 10-year bond yields, reflecting inflation expectations and policy shifts.

Eurosystem Bond Holdings (APP and PEPP): Holdings are projected to decrease significantly from 2025 onwards, with APP holdings at 2692 billion EUR in Q2 2025 and PEPP holdings at 1563 billion EUR, declining to around 1000 billion EUR by 2030.
TPI Activation: Expected to be unlikely within 6 months, with a median probability of 29.8%, suggesting policymakers may delay intervention.

MRO and LTRO Outstanding Amounts: MRO and LTRO amounts are anticipated to increase moderately in 2025-2027, with MRO peaking at around 35 billion EUR in Q4 2027 and LTRO at 77 billion EUR, reflecting ongoing support in liquidity markets.

GDP Growth: Expected to remain low initially, averaging 0.3% year-on-quarter for 2028, with a long-run projection of 1.0-1.4% annual growth.
Unemployment Rate: Forecasted to stay around 6.3% in the short term, with minimal changes to 6.5%, and stable long-run at 6.3% to 6.5%.
Inflation: Short-term HICP expected near 2.0%, with probabilities of being below or above 2% mixed for 2025-2028. Median long-run inflation is 2.0%, with risks influencing perceptions; upside risks dominate for growth, while balanced inflation risks.