欧洲央行-欧洲央行货币分析师调查（SMA）（英）-2025.1_7页_267kb

The ECB Survey of Monetary Analysts (SMA) for January 2025 is a comprehensive report designed to gather expectations and analyses from monetary analysts on various aspects of euro area monetary policy and economic conditions. It covers key areas such as interest rate expectations, asset purchase programs, inflation and growth forecasts, and market conditions. The report includes structured questions divided into sections:

• Interest Rates and Market Conditions: Sections 1.1 and 1.2 ask for reserve maintenance period expectations, probability assessments for changes in the deposit facility rate (DFR), and bond yield forecasts for instruments like OIS and government bonds.

• Asset Purchases and Reinvestment: Section 2.1 deals with the Eurosystem's asset purchase programs (APP and PEPP), stock of bonds, and expectations for the Targeted Longer-Term Refinancing Instrument (TPI) activation.

• Refinancing Operations: Section 3.1 focuses on outstanding refinancing operations, including marginal refinance operations (MRO) and long-term refinancing operations (LTROs).

• Macroeconomic Outlook: Section 4 includes forecasts for euro area real GDP growth, unemployment rates, Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) inflation, and its exclusions, along with probability distributions for inflation outcomes over specific years and the long run. It also assesses risks and risk factors for growth and inflation.

The survey aims to provide insights into future monetary policy paths, inflation trends, and economic stability, based on analyst projections.