2024-11-03-欧洲央行-欧洲央行货币分析师调查汇总结果（英）_15页_720kb

ECB Survey of Monetary Analysts - October 2024 Summary

Key ECB Interest Rates, Market Rates and Market Conditions

• Expectations for key rates, such as the DFR, MRO, MLF, €STR, and Euribor, show a general downward trend across all time horizons, with median values declining steadily over the two-year survey period. For instance, by 2027, rates are expected to range between 2.00%–2.20% for ECB instruments and similar for market rates like the 3-month Euribor.
• Probability distributions indicate a high likelihood of small decreases (e.g., 74.6% probability for a -25bps change in DFR at the next meeting, and 81.1% for the second meeting), suggesting continued rate cuts.
• Long-run expectations stabilize but remain lower, with DFR long-run median at 2.25% and €STR at 2.22%, indicating persistent downward pressure.

Asset Purchases and Reinvestment

• Eurosystem bond holdings under the Asset Purchase Programme (APP) and Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP) are expected to decline significantly from Q4 2024 (around 2900–2890 billion EUR) to as low as 78 billion EUR under APP and 49 under PEPP by 2033, reflecting tapered reinvestment or reduction planned.
• The probability of the Targeted Longer-Term Refinancing Operations (TLOO) Instrument (TPI) activation remains low, with an average likelihood of 5.2% for the next 3 months, rising to a peak of 29.7% for periods after 6 months, but median responses favor "never" activation.

Refinancing Operations

• Outstandings for Main Refinancing Operations (MRO) and Long-Term Refinancing Operations (LTRO) are projected to decrease gradually after Q4 2024, with MRO expected to fall to around 35 billion EUR by 2027 and LTRO to 33–55 billion EUR, indicating reduced need for liquidity support.

Macroeconomic Outlook

• Real GDP growth is forecasted to remain stubbornly low, averaging 0.3–0.4% in 2024–2025, with a long-run median projection of 1.2%. Growth risks are slightly balanced in 2025–2026, but may shift.
• Unemployment rates are expected to stabilize around 6.6%, with minimal change from current levels.
• Inflation (HICP) is viewed as converging towards 2%, with median long-run expectations at 2.0%. By 2026, inflation is projected at 2.0%, with risks noted: inflation outlook shows balanced to slightly upside risks, while growth risks have a slight downside tilt.
• Probability assessments for inflation: 50/50 chance of being above or below 2% in 2024–2026, and long-run inflation is centered at 2.0%, with risk balance in growth increasingly tipping towards upside by 2026.