欧洲央行-欧洲央行货币分析师调查汇总结果（英）-2025.3_16页_934kb

Summary of ECB Survey of Monetary Analysts (SMA), March 2025

This report summarizes the aggregated results of the ECB Survey of Monetary Analysts, based on responses from 70 participants and covering key aspects such as interest rates, asset purchases, refinancing operations, and macroeconomic outlook.

Key ECB Interest Rate Expectations

Analysts provide median and percentile projections for the ECB's key rates. The Deposit Facility Rate (DFR) is expected to start at 2.50% in Q1 2025 and decline to 1.50% short-term before gradually increasing to 2.00% long-term. The Main Refinancing Rate (MRO) starts at 2.65% and decreases to 2.15% long-term. The Marginal Lending Facility (MLF) rates begin at 2.90% and drop to 2.40% long-term. Expected €STR rates range from 1.50% to 2.00% long-term, stabilizing around 2.00%. The 3-Month Euribor is expected to decrease initially, reaching around 2.00% long-term. Changes at the next Governing Council meetings show a median probability of no change or small adjustments, with the largest probability assigned to a 0bps change.

Asset Purchases and Reinvestment

Respondents expect declining bond holdings under the Asset Purchase Programme (APP) and Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP) by 2030. The APP holdings are projected to fall from around 2784 billion EUR in Q1 2025 to 654 billion EUR by 2032, with a similar decline for PEPP holdings. The probability of activating the Targeted Longer-Term Refinancing Operations (TLO) Instrument (TPI) within six months is around 29.7%, while there's a high likelihood (56%) it will never be activated.

Refinancing Operations

Expected outstanding amounts for the Main Refinancing Operations (MRO) and Longer-Term Refinancing Operations (LTRO) are estimated to rise over the projection period. MRO outstanding amounts range from 10 billion EUR in early 2025 to nearly 50 billion EUR later, while LTRO amounts start at 13 billion EUR and increase to higher levels in subsequent years.

Macroeconomic Outlook

GDP growth is forecasted at approximately 0.2% to 0.3% short-term, rising to around 1.0% long-term. Unemployment rates are expected to remain between 6.2% and 6.7% in the short term and stabilize long-term. HICP inflation is projected to decrease from around 2.3% in early 2025 to near 2.0% long-term, with similar trends for inflation excluding food and energy. The balance of risks assessment indicates a largely balanced view, with downside risks being significant short-term but easing in the medium term. Long-run inflation probabilities center around 2.0%, with risks viewed as balanced overall.

Overview of Other Comments

The survey highlights a gradual shift in monetary conditions, with expectations for rate normalization and declining asset purchases, reflecting broader macroeconomic trends.