2024-06-16-欧洲央行-欧洲央行货币分析师调查（英）_17页_771kb

ECB Survey of Monetary Analysts: June 2024 Summary

Part 1: Key ECB Interest Rates, Market Rates, and Market Conditions

• DFR (Deposit Facility Rate): Current 3.75%, expected to decline gradually from 3.75% in Q2-2024 to 2.00% long-term.
• MRO (Main Refinancing Rate): Current 4.25%, projected to decrease from 3.65% in Q3-2024 to 2.15% long-term.
• MLF (Marginal Lending Facility): Current 4.50%, expected to fall to 2.40% long-term.
• €STR (€ Standing Facilities Rate): Current 3.66%, anticipated to decrease to 2.25% long-term.
• 3-Month Euribor: Current 3.70%, expected to drop to 2.33% long-term.
• Probability Distributions: High consensus on market rates declining throughout 2024-2027.

Part 2: Asset Purchases and Reinvestment

• Eurosystem Asset Purchase Programs (APP/PEPP):
  • APP holdings projected to decrease from 3,039B EUR in Q2-2024 to 856B EUR by 2031.
  • PEPP holdings expected to continue reducing from 1,714B EUR to 49B EUR by 2033.
• TPI Activation: Average probability of TPI activation within 3-6 months is low, with 59.3% expecting never.
• Refinancing Operations: TLTRO III, MRO, and LTRO outstanding amounts are expected to decrease significantly by 2028.

Part 3: Macroeconomic Outlook

• Real GDP Growth: Anticipated steady growth at ~0.3% quarterly until 2026Q2, followed by a slight decline in 2027. Long-run forecast of 1.0–1.4% annual growth.
• Unemployment Rate: Expected to remain stable around 6.5% until 2026, increasing slightly to 6.9% in the long run.
• HICP Inflation: Short-term inflation is expected to fall below 2% by 2025, with long-term forecasts ranging around 2.0–2.1%. Most analysts expect inflation to stay near the 2% target.
• Long-Run Inflation Uncertainty: Probable inflation rates vary significantly across percentiles, reflecting a bimodal distribution centered around 2–3%.
• Risk Assessment: Market analysts perceive broadly balanced risks for both growth and inflation in the short term.

Part 4: Operational Framework

• Eurosystem Balance Sheet: Analysts predict balance sheet growth to restart in 2027–2028 after two decades of dominance through quantitative easing.
• Balance Sheet Composition: Expected long-run share projections: MROs and LTROs (25.4%), structural longer-term operations (49.5%), legacy portfolios (15.7%), and other assets (9.5%).

Key Observations

• A general trend of lower growth and persistent inflation risks in the Eurozone.
• Decline in market interest rates coupled with gradual reduction in the Eurosystem's资产负债表.
• Analysts foresee the ECB transitioning toward conventional monetary policy tools in the coming years.