加拿大央行货币政策报告-2023年10月-27页_1mb

加拿大货币政策通胀控制策略总结

The Canadian inflation-control strategy is centered on promoting economic and financial well-being through maintaining low and stable inflation. Since 1991, inflation targeting has been the core approach, with a renewed flexible framework ending in December 2026. The primary objective is a 2% inflation target, measured as the 12-month change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), within a control range of 1%-3%. This strategy is symmetric, meaning the Bank is equally concerned about inflation deviating above or below the target, and flexible, allowing for adjustments to support maximum sustainable employment and address structural challenges through policy tools.

• Monetary Policy Tools: The Bank primarily uses changes in the target overnight interest rate. When the policy rate is very low, flexibility is leveraged, including quantitative easing, negative rates, and guidance on future rates, to influence demand and economic balance. All tools aim to affect total demand through market rates, asset prices, and exchange rates, with the goal of aligning with the economy's production capacity.

• Current Inflation and Forecast: CPI inflation has dropped significantly from a peak of 8.1% in 2022 (June), fluctuating between 2.8% and 4.0% in recent months. Core inflation, measured by CPI-trim and CPI-median, remains persistent, with three-month rates hovering in the 3.5%-4% range. Despite expectations, progress toward the 2% target is slow. Inflation is projected to average around 3.5% until mid-2024, easing to about 2.5% in the second half of 2024 and returning to target by 2025.

• Economic Context: Higher interest rates are moderating demand, slowing GDP growth to about 1% in recent quarters. Labor market indicators show some easing, but wages and prices are still sticky. Supply growth is outpacing demand, leading to a rebalancing economy. However, risks persist, including resilient services inflation and potential delays due to higher input costs.

• Risks and Uncertainties: Upside risks include rising oil prices, geopolitical conflicts, and strong labor markets, which could sustain inflation above target. Downside risks from economic slowdowns or tighter financial conditions could push inflation downward faster but may lead to prolonged stagnation. Inflation expectations remain elevated, and monitoring involves excluding volatile components to assess underlying trends.

Overall, the strategy emphasizes forward-looking adjustments based on inflation behavior, economic projections, and asymmetry in risks, with inflation nearing target convergence by 2025 under managed conditions.