2023年Q1航空运输报告（英）-34页

I. Global Economic Context

The global economy grew at 3% in 2023, below the 2022 estimate of 3.4%. World trade expanded by 1.7%, though volumes set a new record, exceeding 2019 levels. Inflation moderated in 2023 (7% projected) but remained high, impacting debt and monetary policy. High debt levels, multilateral challenges, and climate transition pressures were noted.

II. Sustainability Focus

Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) was highlighted as crucial for achieving net-zero CO₂ by 2050, contributing up to 65% to emissions abatement. As of March 2023, IATA reported 51 publicly announced SAF offtake agreements representing ~25 Mt of blended SAF. The industry also noted ongoing capacity development for renewable fuels and the early stages of SAF production pathways.

III. Passenger Traffic Dynamics

Global RPKs reached 85.9% of Q1 2019 levels in 2023 Q1, showing progress from 2022. Asia Pacific led regional growth (125.5% YoY), but still lagged behind Europe, Africa, and the Middle East in full recovery. Demand surged following China’s domestic reopening and strengthening cargo performance; load factors approached pre-pandemic levels but capacity remains below long-term expectations absent the COVID shock.

IV. Regional Market Diversions

• Africa & Middle East saw strong O-D passenger growth (87.1% YoY RPKs), with carriers among the highest in load factors compared to 2019. Cargo remains constrained globally, making this region notably vulnerable.
• Americas airlines returned almost fully to pre-pandemic volume levels, with North America recovering domestic markets first. Latin America progressed faster in O-D recovery than in total RPKs.
• Asia Pacific showed the highest RPK growth (125.5% YoY) but continued to recover slowly from borders remaining open late. Domestic markets, particularly China, achieved significant recovery. Cargo demand declined 11% YoY.
• Europe demonstrated robust RPK and ASK growth, recovering domestic traffic fully but international remaining 15% below 2019. Charter demand has been stabilizing.

V. Forward-Looking Metrics

Traffic forecasts project global air travel to fully recover by 2024. Optimism exists in cargo operations based on the Business Confidence Survey, with 54% expecting improvement over the next year. However, persistent inflation, higher input costs, and a slowing global economy remain key concerns dragging required investment plans.