2023年全球航空运输展望报告（英）-24页_1mb

Global Air Transport Outlook Summary

• Introduction and Key Takeaways:
  The report highlights that global long-term trends, such as slowed economic growth, political fragmentation, and climate change, are weakening support for air transport. Aviation recovery in 2023 was strong, nearly returning to pre-pandemic levels, but growth is expected to slow in 2024. The industry is resilient but financially fragile, with limited profitability due to high costs and external risks.

• Long-Term Trends:
  Economic fundamentals face challenges from reduced working-age populations, technological productivity stagnation, and rising debt. Political shifts, increased conflicts (e.g., over 200 high-intensity conflicts in 2022), and climate change threaten global GDP growth, inflation, and energy access. The world is moving toward more inward-looking policies, which could delay the energy transition.

• Air Transportation Recovery:
  Passenger traffic grew 40.1% YoY through September 2023, reaching 92.9% of pre-pandemic levels (except Asia Pacific). Asia Pacific leads in recovery, with expected annual growth of 4.5% to 2040. Cargo traffic faced headwinds from macroeconomic issues and trade slowdowns, with CTKs improving slightly in 2023 but still below 2022. Full recovery hinges on geopolitical stability, especially in Asia Pacific.

• Airline Financial Performance:
  Net profit for 2023 is forecast at USD 23.3 billion, with a slim 2.7% net profit margin. North America (USD 14.3 billion profit) and Europe (USD 7.7 billion) led the recovery, while Asia Pacific and Latin America are working toward profitability. Key factors include high fuel costs, labor shortages, and operational challenges. ROIC improved but remains below WACC, indicating financial fragility.

• Risks and Challenges:
  Economic downturns, rising interest rates, and geopolitical conflicts (e.g., wars in Ukraine, Middle East) pose significant risks. Supply chain issues limit aircraft deliveries, and regulatory burdens increase compliance costs. Climate change and energy transition pressures add structural vulnerability.

• Outlook and Recommendations:
  Global air travel will stabilize in 2024, with passenger growth decelerating to 4.2% annually. Profitability remains low, necessitating investments in fuel-efficient aircraft, sustainable aviation fuel, and SAF adoption. Strengthening balance sheets and adapting to energy transition are critical for long-term resilience. International connectivity is vital for global economic stability, but fragmentation and conflicts cap growth potential.